US Open: Federer most likely, but Ferrer the value

With Rafa Nadal missing the tournament with a knee injury the recent cast of grand-slam semi-finalists is reduced by one, and we are left assessing which of Federer (3.8514/5), Djokovic (2.6213/8) and Murray (5.409/2) represent the best value to win this one.

In considering this question, I largely agree with Sean Calvert in viewing Federer as the most attractive betting proposition of the three. He spanked Djokovic in Cincinatti, has been the most consistent player in the world this year, and is arguably at his most effective on the hard courts of Flushing Meadows. He certainly has more to offer than the other two.

When Djokovic despatched Murray and Nadal in ferocious five-setters to win the Australian Open, it looked as he would maintain the form that brought him a glorious 2011, but, since then, he's tended to lose to the likes of Federer, Murray, Nadal and Del Potro in the games that matter. So although he may have a kind draw, I would be nervous were he to face any top-flight player, and wouldn't want to be supporting him at such short odds.

Murray's win in the Olympic Games might well become the tipping point in his career: the moment when he turned from perennial big-occasion loser to a player capable of taking major titles. However, he has not inspired confidence subsequently. He withdrew from Toronto with a sore knee and his performance when losing to Jeremy Chardy in the third-round in Cincinatti was utterly lacklustre. I've written before about the statistics that suggest Murray might never win a grand slam, and, although Nadal's absence probably means this is his best chance yet of breaking the hoodoo, I'd want more than 5.409/2 to be offered before investing.

So Federer it is then. Or is it?

Djokovic, Federer and Murray certainly dominate the market. Combined, they are available to back at around 1.201/5, or, put another way, Betfair layers feel there is only a 17 per cent chance that another player can emerge from the field to deny one of them. Now, to me, that number feels low. With Nadal out, and niggling doubts surrounding the other big names, is this the tournament to be looking for an outsider to disrupt the tennis oligarchy?

The obvious place to start the search is in the quarter of the draw where Nadal is now absent and, at the bottom of that section, David Ferrer, at a whopping 75.074/1, looks to have an ideal chance of progressing to the semi-final and beyond. Although more well-known as a clay courter, he has won five tournaments on the hard stuff, has had a consistent couple of years, and has a better record against the best in the world than most other players. The worry with Ferrer is his serve: his success seems to be built on how well he returns and defends, and perhaps, to win a grand slam, you need to win your service games more easily than Ferrer does; but then, at the price, some doubt on this front is more than compensated for.

Elsewhere, I'll be having a small interest in Andy Roddick [(450.0)] and Sam Querrey (600.0599/1). Roddick's form in recent years has been inconsistent in the extreme, but in the last few months he has shown glimpses of his old self. He had a solid grass court season, winning one of the Wimbledon warm-up tournaments, and won in Atlanta when the hard-court season started. He is in the same part of the draw as Del Potro and Djokovic and is capable of beating both on his day.

Sam Querrey has steadily improved since turning professional in 2006, won the Farmers Classic in Los Angeles last month, and could well have a comfortable run through to the quarter-finals, where he would be likely to meet Federer.

*****

Incidentally, this article was originally going to be an analysis of how Olympic champions fare after collecting their gold medals, but, as so often happens with statistical analyses, you spend a lot of time building a spreadsheet that ends up telling you very little. For what it's worth, although no man has gone on from Olympic glory to win the US Open in the same season (Agassi and Nadal have done best in reaching the semi-finals), there is very little of significance that can be gleaned from the numbers.

In the women's game, though, it can be said that a solid performance at the Olympics is a slight indicator of a better-than-expected performance at Flushing Meadows. Hey, it's not the most telling spreadsheet I've ever built, but I wouldn't discourage anyone from supporting Serena Williams at 2.1011/10.

Recommendations:
2 points back David Ferrer at 75.074/1 in US Open.
1/2 point back Andy Roddick at 450.0449/1 in US Open.
1/2 point back Sam Querrey at 600.0599/1 in US Open.