WTA Finals Preview and Tip: Back comfortable Zheng victory at 6/4

• Sabalenka looks the player to beat

• Qinwen Zheng becoming elite talent

• Rybakina not at the races

After the first round-robin matches of the 2024 Tour Finals Aryna Sabalenka is looking like the player to beat.

Before a ball was hit the Belarusian world number one was the player that in theory should find conditions most to her liking and she confirmed that in a comfortable defeat of Qinwen Zheng on Saturday.

Sabalenka is serving smoothly and her powerful ground game looked secure.

Sabalenka two wins from year end number one

It is likely that Sabalenka will move one win closer to achieving the season end world number one ranking in her second group stage encounter against Jasmine Paolini.

The Italian did a good job for followers of this column by defeating Elena Rybakina in her opening match in Riyadh, proving too steady for an opponent that looked very rusty.

Unfortunately for Paolini, Sabalenka is in good nick and I expect the market is spot on with its expectation that the top seed will score a comfortable victory.

Qinwen closing the gap

Although she was beaten in her first match by Sabalenka, it is clear that Qinwen Zheng is quickly closing the gap on the top players.

At the start of the year in Melbourne Zheng was soundly beaten by Sabalenka, losing by a seven game margin. It didn't get much better for the Olympic champion at the US Open when Sabalenka defeated her by a whopping nine games.

However, in Wuhan, Qinwen was able to snatch a set and she was able to reduce the margin to a solitary break of serve per set on Saturday.

It has been a season of strong progress for Zheng and it will be interesting to see if she can snatch a win over Sabalenka in the new year, who for my money represents the toughest possible match-up for Zheng on tour.

Qinwen is blessed with a formidable serve, scoring the highest number of Aces of any player on the WTA tour this season. She has found a way to harness her raw tools into an ever more effective attacking arsenal as the year has developed.

Obviously the gold medal won on the clay at the Paris Olympics is the clearest indication of what she might achieve in the coming few years, but her form in recent months on hard courts suggests she will be a threat too on the faster surfaces.

A good time to play Rybakina

Today's opponent Elena Rybakina has a similar power-hitting playing style as Sabalenka. However, her game is out of rhythm after several months plagued by one health problem after another coupled with uncertainty over her coaching situation.

Saturday was Rybakina's first competitive match since a second round withdrawal at the US Open and although she executed patches of dominating winners, they were balanced by more than twice as many unforced errors - a whopping 56 in total.

Jasmine Paolini played a good match against Rybakina, maintaining a good discipline in her role as counter-puncher and feeding the Kazakhstani with plenty of awkward shots that the rusty Rybakina could not control.

It is a great time for Qinwen to play Rybakina as she does not appear ready to win matches against top 10 calibre players.

In contrast, Zheng hit only 18 unforced errors throughout her match with Sabalenka and it is unlikely that Rybakina is going to drag out an inferior level from the Chinese player in this match.

Speaking of her form Rybakina said: "The level is definitely not the best. I actually came to Riyadh without great expectations. I want to have fun and see where I am, what my level is now playing against the best players in the world."

In the span of time between Ryakina's first match in Riyadh and her previous match in August, Zheng has played 20 matches, winning 16 and lifted a title in Tokyo.

Qinwen is in fine rhythm and I think she is good value to get a comfortable win over Rybakina. Back Qinwen Zheng to win 2-0 (Set Betting) at 6/42.50.

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