Dallas Open Tips: Right conditions for Johnson to frustrate Mannarino

It was pleasing to get a good value winner on Tuesday when 3.02/1 chance Lorenzo Musetti finally got the better of Elias Ymer in Rotterdam in what was a tough battle that the Italian's more enterprising play deserved its reward.

I wonder what sort of effort we'll see from Alexander Bublik on Wednesday after his maiden tour level title last week in which he beat Alexander Zverev and Roberto Bautista Agut en route to the Montpellier crown?

If he repeats that level he's a good price to beat Andy Murray, but it's hard to see the inconsistent Bublik showing his best stuff in back-to-back weeks, although the Wednesday start will surely help Bublik.

Egor Gerasimov has caused plenty problems for Felix Auger-Aliassime in the past, despite the 0-4 head-to-head and Gerasimov should have won the last two of those, eventually losing in final set tie breaks both times.

Indeed, in their last three clashes it's Gerasimov that's won more second serve points (51% to 48%) and just two percent fewer on first serve points, so perhaps there's a bit of value in Gerasimov making a strong start.

FAA hasn't played since the Australian Open and he tends to start tournaments slowly, the AO being a classic case, where he went five sets in round one and four tie break sets in round two before producing arguably the best form of his career in the quarters.

Gerasimov, on the other hand, has played two matches in qualies already this week and cruised past Philipp Kohlschreiber for the loss of just two games.

FAA hasn't played since the Australian Open and he tends to start tournaments slowly, the AO being a classic case, where he went five sets in round one and four tie break sets in round two...

It might be a bit slow in the main arena for Gerasimov, but it was really slow in Cologne when he and FAA went all the way to a final set tie break in 2020, too.

We saw on Tuesday with Denis Shapovalov and Stefanos Tsitsipas how tricky it can be for players to get used to this slow Rotterdam court and Tecnifibre balls early on and there's enough in this to chance Gerasimov at least troubling FAA here.

The last time this pair met FAA was a 1.364/11 shot and now he's as short as around 1.292/7 so I don't mind taking Gerasimov to win set one here at 3.02/1.

In these slow conditions, Cam Norrie probably just has the edge over Karen Khachanov, but the match looks priced about right based on their indoor hard stats over the past 12 months.

Similarly, the slow surface should help Alex De Minaur to chase everything down against Mackenzie McDonald, but again, no value in the ADM price of around 1.51/2 there.

Quick conditions favour Johnson in Dallas

So, for my second bet of the day we move on to Dallas, where Steve Johnson is a tempting choice as underdog against Adrian Mannarino, who the American has beaten four times in five career meetings.

You'd think that Mannarino's lefty angles would cause a lot of problems for Johnson's predominantly sliced backhand and at least open up the forehand side for Mannarino, but he's been unable to do that in this match-up yet.

Mannarino did tough out a five setter against Johnson in their first career meeting, but since then Johnson has won all four - on grass, clay and outdoor hard.

Mannarino has been unable to break the Johnson serve with any sort of regularity, with Johnson holding 87% of the time against the Frenchman, but it should be noted he's saved 67% of the break chances created by Mannarino.

Manna has been playing pretty well lately, but was really poor against Alexander Zverev in Montpellier in his most recent match, and the lively conditions here in Dallas combined with Johnson's big hitting game may well not suit him.

Mannarino is 0-5 in Shanghai, where it's very quick, and against the big servers in my database he's 5-15 win/loss (0-3 on indoor hard).

When Mannarino has gone well on indoor hard, it's been at the slower tournaments, such as Nur-Sultan and Moscow, where can get the rhythm he craves, while at events like Marseille (which he's not entered next week, he's playing the slower Delray Beach instead) he's 0-4 and not played it since 2013.

He's 0-5 in Shanghai, where it's very quick, and against the big servers in my database he's 5-15 win/loss (0-3 on indoor hard).

Johnson's not the force of old, but he should fancy this one at home in the USA where he usually plays his best tennis.

The obvious bet of the day in Dallas in these conditions is to back tie breaks in the clash between John Isner and Kevin Anderson, but is there any value in it?

This pair have met 13 times in total and 11 of those matches have featured at least one tie break. They haven't met since that insane match at Wimbledon that went to 26-24 in the fifth in 2018 that and spectacle heralded a change by The All England Club to their fifth set scoring rules.

In all, they've played 0.53 tie breaks per set in their head-to-head and held serve 93% (Anderson) and 96% (Isner) of the time each, so clearly one or maybe two are likely, but it's being priced up at around 1.171/6 for a tie break in this match, so I think I'll pass.

Based on what we saw from Daniel Altmaier last week in Pune (and generally away from clay) he'll probably find conditions too quick for him in Dallas this week.

Altmaier struggled to get going against Prajnesh Gunneswaran and Radu Albot before being ousted in straight sets by Joao Sousa in Pune and fast indoor hard doesn't look like it'll be his favourite surface.

He takes on Italian veteran Andreas Seppi on Wednesday and conditions should favour Seppi here, but can we trust him to play something like his best tennis these days at the age of almost 38?

He certainly hasn't shown it so far in 2022 and I'm not sure I can risk Seppi today as a single. Maybe he's worth adding to a small stakes multiple with the one in Buenos Aires below.

Can veteran Verdasco roll back the years in Buenos Aires?

The Argentina Open is living up to its billing as a good tournament for favourite backers, with nine favourites or joint favourites winning so far from 12 matches.

One of the underdogs that did win there was Fernando Verdasco, who at 38 hasn't shown anything like his old form or fitness in recent years, but was strong enough to beat a too-passive Hugo Dellien.

Now he faces a similar opponent to himself in terms of style: the aggressive left-hander Thiago Monteiro.

Monteiro was another of the underdogs (albeit a slight one) to have won this week in Buenos Aires when he beat a tired Albert Ramos and Monteiro isn't usually a player to trust at short prices.

If you'd backed him in all of his main level matches on clay when he was priced up below 1.51/2 you'd be out of pocket as he's only won eight of the 15 he's played in that price range.

Monteiro will probably win this on fitness and either the 2-1 to him at around 4.216/5 or Verdasco to win the first set at 2.77/4 are worth considering or adding to Seppi as a risky small stakes multiple.

So, for today, one point on Johnson and half a point on Gerasimov to win set one.