Aryna Sabalenka can scratch her name into the history books on Sunday should she capture a third consecutive Australian Open title, and having also won the most recent edition of the US Open victory would secure a third hard court Grand Slam in a row.
Martina Hingis was the last player to win back to back to back Australian Opens between 1997 and 1999, while only Hingis, Monica Seles and Steffi Graf can boast three consecutive hard court slams in the Open Era. That is not bad company by anyone's standards.
The Belarusian starts a short yet deserving favourite to get the better of surprise finalist Madison Keys who will compete a first major final since her 2017 US Open defeat to Sloane Stephens.
Keys also earns a spot in history as the eight year gap between her first and second Grand Slam final appearance is the longest of any player in the Open Era. Furthermore at 29-years old she is the oldest Australian Open finalist since Serena and Venus Williams contested the 2017 final at 36 and 37 respectively.
I think that Sabalenka is likely to secure her historical achievement but there are plenty of reasons to believe that Keys will keep this close.
Sabalenka comfortable versus Badosa
After a nervy start in which she should have fallen to a 3/0 deficit, Sabalenka settled and cruised past her good friend Paula Badosa in the semi-final.
Unfortunately the Spaniard was a deer in the headlights while a composed and secure Sabalenka easily picked apart her carcass.
Sabalenka has learned how to handle the big matches and even though her tennis has not been quite at its sparkling best, this composure and experience will likely be decisive in Saturday's final.
Huge challenge for Keys
Breaking Sabalenka's dominance in Australia is a huge challenge. It would represent the first time since Justine Henin's 2003 Roland Garros victory where the eventual champion beat both the first and second seeds along the way.
She will also have to overcome a negative four defeats to one win head to head record against Sabalenka, including all three played on a hard court and both at a major.
There is some hope however from their history that Keys can draw confidence from.
Keys should have won their 2023 US Open semi-final having blown Sabalenka away in a dominant 6/0 opening set before choking when she served for it in set two, and losing out in a couple of tiebreaks. Defeats don't become any more heartbreaking than that.
Similarly, Keys only previous taste of a Grand Slam final could not have been any more sour. She couldn't lay a glove on compatriot Sloane Stephens losing 6/3 6/0 in a match where the couldn't have played any worse.
Clearly there is significant scar tissue not only from her experiences with Sabalenka but also from her major finals. It would be a movie book ending if Keys were to get the win here.
Keys new found belief
This is the best version of Madison Keys we have seen in some time. In a previous article this week I described how according to data she is performing her strongest tennis since 2019.
It is also getting results. She is on an 11 match win streak, having scored a title in Adelaide before her run in Melbourne.
This has been underlined by a new found reserve of confidence. Keys has been on the ropes several times in this tournament. In the second round against Elena Gabriela Ruse her opponent held the momentum for a long time in the third set, she lost the second set 6/1 to Elena Rybakina in the fourth round, came out of the blocks slowly against Elina Svitolina and faced down match point against Iga Swiatek.
Yet time and again she has addressed these challenges in a calm and collected way. Most significantly was how she fought back to defeat Swiatek; whose intensity and blasts of winners have overwhelmed Keys in several one-sided defeats. This time she shook off Swiatek's good moments and kept fighting away, even retrieving a deficit in the deciding tiebreak.
For a player that has been associated with freezing on the big occasion, there is no better demonstration of her addressing past failings than her passage through this tournament.
Sabalenka likely too much
As impressive as Keys has been, I think Sabalenka will likely prove too strong.
Keys has played four consecutive three setters and also contested both pre-major warm-up weeks. That is a lot of tennis.
Sabalenka is also showing no obvious sign that she is feeling the pressure or her form is about to disappear.
Any poor spells she has had this fortnight have not been sustained. She has been able to shake these off ending each of her matches this tournament a clear and deserving winner. Also, on another day Swiatek converts her match point and Keys does not play this final.
Keys knows what to expect from Sabalenka saying, "Definitely some big hitting, I think is gonna happen, not a lot of long points. But she's obviously going for her third Aussie Open and I'm excited to get to play her. And I'm excited for the challenge, and Saturday is very far away in my brain right now."
I hope Keys can remain competitve in this match and do something to address her past horrors. It may prove useful for Slams later this season.
A full Keys redemption isn't off the cards but ultimately Sabalenka is likely to have too much and score her Australian Open hattrick. Nevertheless, you must respect how impressive Keys has been at rolling with the punches. She is playing well and is capable of capitalising on short term dips that have appeared in a couple of Sabalenka's matches this tournament.
If Keys plays to form it won't be easy work for Sabalenka. A 2/1 set victory for Sabalenka is priced at an appealing 11/43.75.
Back Aryna Sabalenka to win 2 sets to 1