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Djokovic masterful against Alcaraz
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A familiar sticking point for Zverev
In not one of their 13 tour level matches has Novak Djokovic been priced as big as he is for Friday's Australian Open semi-final against Alexander Zverev.
The Serbian leads the head to head nine wins to four, and you might even suggest that a couple of the wins in the German's favour could be predicted due to limited motivations of Djokovic in certain spots.
Of these matches Zverev has only won one that mattered to Djokovic, at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 and even then it was held over three sets rather than the five set format where Djokovic reigns head and shoulders above any other player in history.
All three of their meetings at a major have been won by Djokovic, and given his exceptional quarter-final performance against Carlos Alcaraz I would be surprised if a continuation of that form doesn't put Djokovic in position to challenge for an 11th Australian Open title on Sunday.
In the other semi-final I suspect it is the end of the road for Ben Shelton who has the daunting task of trying to upset Jannik Sinner. Shelton has performed well for backers of this column landing our match bet against Lorenzo Sonego as well as securing the 13/114.00 position we took on him to win his quarter of the draw.
It would be a sizeable turn up for the books if Shelton was somehow able to keep pace with Sinner after the Italian's incredible showing against Alex De Minaur on Thursday. Sinner battered his top ten opponent for the loss of only six games over three sets. It was an utterly ruthless display and in moderate speed conditions it should be far too slow for Shelton to remain competitive for any length of time.
Djokovic masterful display
If Novak Djokovic gets anywhere close to matching his form against Carlos Alcaraz I would be surprised if Alex Zverev comes out on top.
The Serbian was masterful in how he disintegrated the confidence and form of who I believe is the most talented player of this modern generation. After a hot start Alcaraz found his backhand under consistent pressure, and running out of solutions to see off Djokovic.
Alcaraz explained post-match, "When Novak plays at this level, it's really difficult to find a solution. Every time we play each other, it's guaranteed to be a great match. We push each other to the limit."
The Spaniard may have some regrets about how this match played out but nevertheless he can respect he was beaten by the better player on the day.
How Djokovic handled Alcaraz over the final two sets was hugely impressive. In the opening hour it was clear Djokovic was in physical discomfort and Alcaraz was matched as low as 1.11/10 in-play on the Betfair Exchange.
As is often the case though, Djokovic adapted to his weakened physical condition and with his teeth in the fight he showed his class to deservedly get the win.
Alcaraz was throwing the kitchen sink at Djokovic towards the latter stages of set four yet Novak held tough. If he can see off Alcaraz, I don't see what Zverev has to defeat him in these conditions.
Zverev contrasting form
For a player that has had a cakewalk draw and whose game revolves around the quality of his serving Zverev has been broken in eight of his 78 service games. This equates to the same percentage of service games dropped by Djokovic who has played 10 more service games in total and had to defeat in form opponent's Tomas Machac, Jiri Lehecka and Carlos Alcaraz for his final four spot.
It was a very straightforward draw for Zverev who didn't encounter a seeded opponent until round four and even then dropped a set to Ugo Humbert who shouldn't have the ground game stability in these conditions to hang with Zverev for too long.
I was equally unimpressed with Zverev's colossal struggle against Tommy Paul in the quarter-final. The American should have won the first two sets before comfortably winning the third. On another day Zverev would no longer be in the tournament.
Yet oddsmakers want us to believe this is Zverev's best ever shot at beating Novak as shown in how this match has been priced up.
Zverev may be the second best player on the planet in terms of ranking. This is his reward for consistency across the season. However, he has never won a Grand Slam and it is reasonably accepted that his best is not as good as Djokovic or Sinner and Alcaraz.
That may sound harsh but almost every strand of evidence suggests this. Zverev himself accepts that Sinner and Alcaraz are the current star players on tour.
The case against Novak
The biggest worry I have over Djokovic heading into this match is the possibility that he does not physically recover to compete in another intense match so soon after his heroics versus Alcaraz.
It may be the case that adrenaline got him through and only he will know how much the left groin injury he sustained is bothering him.
There have been so many examples in recent years of Djokovic appearing sub-par physically only to fight his way through the pain - as painful as his dramatics suggest or otherwise - and I would expect him to be fighting fit for this match.
If that is the case Djokovic should enjoy what Zverev will try to beat him with. Djokovic matches Zverev for service quality and has many more options off the ground than his opponent. Djokovic is more likely to seize the moment than Zverev who has lost six of his previous eight Grand Slam semi-finals.
All things told I think there is clear value on Djokovic to win this match. It is what he does in Grand Slams, just ask Carlos Alcaraz or any of the other superstars that have been hyped to beat him over the past 20 years. At 1.684/6 he is bigger than he has ever been for a Zverev match and that to me seems a misinterpretation of the situation.
I prefer this price to suggesting a straight sets or extended sets victory as there is the potential for energy management from Djokovic. If he has realistic hopes of winning this tournament he will need as much in the tank as possible for a final encounter against the dominating Jannik Sinner - who remains a strong favourite to defend his title.
Back Novak Djokovic to win