Australian Open Semi-Final Tip: Badosa can cover handicap against close friend Sabalenka

• Swiatek smooth run to semis

• Sabalenka inconsistent showings

• Badosa realises her opportunity

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Aryna Sabalenka moved a step closer to winning a third consecutive Australian Open title, coming through a tough fought three set quarter-final against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

The Belarusian was a break down in the deciding set against the Russian veteran who produced a strong level for a sustained spell over the second and third set. Ultimately Sabalenka proved too good but it was the latest sign that despite prolonging her winning record, Sabalenka's inconsistent level is allowing players to keep it close.

Sabalenka's semi-final opponent Paula Badosa caused an upset against my predicted tournament winner Coco Gauff. The American had been in strong form this season winning nine consecutive matches before running into Badosa.

In the other match on women's semi-finals day, Iga Swiatek will start a strong 1.211/5 favourite against a potentially jaded Madison Keys. The Pole has been highly efficient this tournament churning past consecutive opponents without breaking a sweat and dropping a total of only 14 games over her five matches in Melbourne.

Keys is in excellent form winning 10 matches in a row including victories over top tenners Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula. Compared to Swiatek though she has been busy having played both warm-up weeks before the Australian Open with signs of those extra accumulated minutes on court evident in some of her hard fought wins. 

It is not beyond Keys to win against Swiatek as the pair are split on a win apiece in hard court meetings across their career. 

However, overall four of the five meetings have been one-sided Swiatek wins who she has won seven of her eight sets without conceding more than three games. Those who backed the tips in this column should feel confident about the 21/10 position advised at the start of this tournament on Swiatek to reach the final.

Sabalenka serving pressure

Of the two semi-finals it is Sabalenka's where I feel the most interesting betting value is to be found.

The world number one has come through unscathed blasting her opponents off the court to earn her semi-final spot but there have been plenty of wayward patches during those matches.

Against both Clara Tauson and Pavlyuchenkova - two players with the weaponry to win points on their own terms - it was not plain sailing for Sabalenka. The serve of the Belarusian came under a lot of pressure and she was broken several times by her opponents.

Sabalenka did possess the extra gears to eventually come through those testing matches and I expect she will likely prove too hot to handle for opponent Paula Badosa in this one.

However, Badosa is evidently in strong form and she has the weaponry to match Sabalenka in this match, at least for the most part.

Badosa full of belief

Coco Gauff could have been forgiven for expecting Badosa not to bring her best tennis in their quarter-final clash. After all the last eight has proven the stumbling block for the Spaniard twice before in Grand Slams.

On both occasions Badosa had been a comfortable favourite in the pre-match odds but she was unable to perform to her expectations in those situations. 

It is unfortunately a known trait of Badosa that she can become overcome by nerves in the pressure matches. For a player of her talent to have captured only one 1000 level title in her career is an underperformance. Harsh yet fair.

It was therefore encouraging that Badosa showed no fear in the underdog position against Coco Gauff who until that point had been a clear level ahead of her opposition all year. Gauff had beaten both Swiatek and Karolina Muchova in fine style before this tournament but Badosa rattled her.

Gauff's problematic forehand that had looked secure in the lead-up to her quarter-final was put under constant pressure by Badosa who was able to drag umpteen errors from it.

Of course Sabalenka is less likely to have as wayward a showing off the ground as Gauff but she is also having errant spells controlling the offensive aspects of her game, in addition to her serving inconsistencies.

What does the head to head tell us?

These two players are well known to be best friends and need no introduction to one another. Both were complimentary about the fighting spirit and ability of her friendly rival in the pre-match comments.

There is some misleading information to be gathered from the head to head records in that the five wins two loss record appears dominant in Sabalenka's favour.

However, it would be fair to apply an asterisk against several of these matches. Factors include injuries, retirements, a lack of form and difficulty adjusting to specialist conditions in several of these matches. None of these aspects are likely to play a role in this match.

Those contests that I feel hold a relevant form guide tend to show that there is not a great deal between the two on an average day. Scorelines are typically close for at least a set, and tight margins are noticeable.

Unless Sabalenka can smooth out the creases in her game that have been prevalent throughout this tournament then there is a reasonable expectation that she wins a tight match.

They have high respect for one another and given this tournament represents what is likely to be the best opportunity Badosa has at landing a Slam in her career I expect she will muster a fight for as long as possible in this one.

All things considered there does feel to be value on the handicap line in Badosa's favour. A +4.5 game head start for Badosa priced at 5/61.84 is an outcome I believe has a good chance of landing even if Sabalenka does ultimately win this contest.

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