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Swiatek and Sinner edging closer
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13/114.00 quarter winner fancy Shelton now 1/31.33
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Back the American to come through turbulent contest
We are at the business end of the Australian Open and it is good to still have plenty of outright positions in hand.
The first to be decided is Ben Shelton who I tipped at 13/114.00 to reach the quarter-finals. He is priced as a strong 1/31.33 favourite to get past Lorenzo Sonego. I think the American will get the job done, but I'd be surprised if victory is easily earned against his opponent who has had an excellent tournament.
Elsewhere, Iga Swiatek and Jannik Sinner are hot favourites to book their semi-final spots. They were the big winners of their respective draws and have made easy work of their progress to this point, although Sinner looked to be struggling physically in his four set win (as tipped in Monday's column) over Holger Rune.
The other quarter-final pits Madison Keys against Elina Svitolina and it is the semi-final where the odds between the two players is closest. However, I expect this is Keys' match to lose as she will be the player dictating the points on her terms and her form appears to be holding up.
Keys got the business done against Elena Rybakina as I suggested would be the case yesterday.
Big hitting Shelton and Sonego contest
Sonego and Shelton have similar traits underpinning their game - powerful serving and big forehands, and they play their best tennis when they are on the front foot.
They have played very well to reach this stage of the tournament notching up plenty of aces and winners along the way.
They've also benefited from a draw that has fallen apart as top seeded duo Danil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz were knocked out earlier than expected. Medvedev's run was ended by 19-year old Learner Tien who was completely out of gas because of his efforts and had nothing left in the tank for his fourth round match with Sonego.
Shelton enjoyed a similar story as Fritz's challenge was ended by a rejuvenated Gael Monfils. But those efforts took their toll on the Frenchman who retired with exhaustion at the start of the fourth set of his clash with Shelton.
In terms of form you'd give a similar level of credit to both for their efforts to this point. Why then is Shelton such a strong favourite to win this match?
Shelton big-time personality
If basing the outcome solely on form at this tournament there's not a lot to pick between them. However, over the past 12 months Shelton was significantly the better player in terms of performance on a hard court ranked almost 50 places higher than Sonego.
Reaching this stage of a hard court major is definitely within Shelton's wheelhouse. Sonego has similarly strong weapons but there is plenty of evidence in his career that says he lacks the mental fortitude to make the most of his form spells and opportunities.
He often has good runs at tournaments but only has four titles and none above the ATP 250 level. This is the first Grand Slam quarter-final of his career.
Shelton on the otherhand is seven years younger than Sonego and this is his third major quarter-final. He has already pocketed a title at ATP 500 level.
The American is seen as a Grand Slam contender because he has the personality to cope with pressure and seems to enjoy big occasions. He is brave when opportunities come his way, while he applies a similarly aggressive approach to the break points he encounters. This will likely be decisive in what is by the far the biggest match of his opponent's career.
Turbulence expected
Both players have performed well at this tournament but, apart from Shelton's opening match against Brandon Nakashima, each has dropped at least a set in their matches.
With both playing highly aggressive tennis it is natural that players have hot streaks before cooling off and this is an angle I think is worth backing in this match.
Back big time Shelton to get the win, but both players to win a set at 6/52.20.
Back Ben Shelton to win and both players to win a set