Australian Open Men's Final Tip: Zverev to be competitive but fall short to almighty Sinner

• Top two seeds clash

• World number one deserving favourite

• Zverev can run Sinner close at 13/102.30

For the first time since 2019 the top two seeds will contest the men's Australian Open final.

Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner have been a class apart at the top and tail of the men's draw, easing their way into the title decider thanks to a combination of a soft path and their main challengers falling by the wayside.

Sinner, who won this tournament 12 months ago, dropped a couple of sets en route to the final against the unheralded Tristan Schoolkate and the tricky Holger Rune on a day where he struggled to cope with the warm weather. The rest of the tournament has been smooth sailing, performing to the high standards expected of a dominant world number one.

Zverev was unconvincing in the quarter-final against Tommy Paul and would've lost on another day, although you have to respect his mentality for digging himself out of his deficits. He also enjoyed some fortune in the semi-final when Novak Djokovic retired after set one revealing that he was carrying a muscle tear from his earlier endeavours in the tournament. 

There is a perception that as great as Novak is, he can be like the boy who cried wolf with these very regular injury alarms, but on this occasion his aging body was actually letting him down as his physical decline was evident in the first set against Zverev.

Strong reasons for Sinner favouritism

There is no better hard courter in men's tennis than Jannik Sinner. Based on the data he is clear of the field, with not one opponent coming close to matching the form, consistency, win rate or performance metrics of the Italian. Zverev for comparison is the fourth best hard courter in men's tennis trailing behind both Carlos Alcaraz and Djokovic, but he is closer to these two than Sinner is relative to all three.

Sinner is chasing a third consecutive hard court major title, a feat not achieved by any player since Djokovic who won the 2011 editions of the Australian and US Opens, before defending his championship Down Under in 2012. What Sinner is on the verge of achieving is incredibly rare and demonstrates his utter dominance on this surface.

The Italian also won his most recent meeting with Zverev on the hard courts of Cincinnati prior to his US Open victory last summer.

Hope for Zverev?

Countering the one-sided and convincing arguments in favour of a Sinner victory is the fact that the German can take heart from how closely fought that Cincinnati match was.

Zverev broke Sinner more often, and won only three points fewer over the course of a 6/7 7/5 6/7 defeat. 

He was able to match Sinner in terms of serving quality but the lesson he has to learn from that match is that he must be brave in the pressure moments. The ability to raise his level under pressure is one of the fundamental reasons for Sinner's evolution in the past 12 months.

It is surely not impossible for Zverev to solve this problem, but the biggest question marks around his potential to win a major are regarding his mental fortitude.

Zverev has a reputation for being passive in the key moments. His preference in a tiebreak situation too often is to serve big in combination with security in his groundstrokes, hoping the opponent will make an attacking error.

That simply will not work against Sinner. If he is too negative it will be punished.

There are signs that he is learning from mistakes of past Grand Slam failings, as he often used to burn himself out with needless five setters against lower calibre opposition early in a tournament leaving him gassed when the more important matches come around. He has thankfully moved away from this and it is a notable sign that he is maturing as a player.

Going back to their head to head record Zverev actually holds a healthy four win two loss lead, including a two one lead in Grand Slam matches. Zverev knows how to win against Sinner.

Who will feel the nerves more?

This is a question I find difficult to answer. It is incredibly hard to defend a first Grand Slam title. The last players to achieve this were Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal who went back to back at Wimbledon in 2003 and 2004, and the 2005 and 2006 French Opens respectively. 

That means none of Djokovic, Murray, Alcaraz, Wawrinka, Cilic, Del Potro, Thiem or Medvedev could do this. Sinner would be joining the most elite of companies.

Sinner has at least been there and bought the t-shirt, while Zverev has yet to get over the line at a Grand Slam. Zverev has held two set to one leads in both of his major final appearances but failed to see off either Dominic Thiem or Carlos Alcaraz.

I wouldn't be surprised if Zverev wins this match but the most logical position is on a hard fought Sinner victory over four or five sets. The result would be a familiar outcome for both men.

Sinner to win and both players to win a set is 13/102.30 on the Betfair Sportsbook

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