Australian Open Day 2 Tip: Side with 2.44 Arnaldi to win Italian derby

• Alcaraz, Djokovic and Osaka in action on day two

• Musetti versus Arnaldi the purists choice

• Value on the 2.447/5 underdog

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic kick off their Australian Open campaigns on day two. The duo are scheduled to meet in the quarter-final if everything goes to plan and although they have been handed opening assignments against players that have collected wins in the opening weeks of the 2025 campaign, it would be a surprise if either crashes at take-off.

The headline night-match on Rod Laver arena is a repeat of a first round encounter from 12 months ago between Caroline Garcia and Naomi Osaka, in which the Frenchwoman edged past the former two-time champion. One year on and the resurgent Osaka is expected to comfortably book her spot in the next round priced at 2/91.22 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Although the Japanese has started the season in good nick, she was forced to retire in the Auckland final due to an abdominal injury that she described as 'not fantastic' following a MRI scan. All eyes will be on whether this will setback Osaka's recent revival.

For tennis purists such as myself one of the most intriguing betting heats in the early hours of Monday morning features an all-Italian duel between Lorenzo Musetti 1.68/13 and Matteo Arnaldi 2.447/5, and I think there is a decent case to be made for the Betfair Exchange underdog Arnaldi picking up the win.

Arnaldi form

The primary reason for siding with Arnaldi is the form he showed in the first week of the season.

I have caught plenty of the action over the early weeks of the season and whilst there is not enough form to fully measure a potential upturn in a player's level, it is possible to pick up on improvements a player has made in these early performances.

Arnaldi was exceptional against Alexei Popyrin, who some consider with reasonable justification a dark horse to have a run in Melbourne. Arnaldi crushed the Aussie hopefully who by no means had an underperformance 6/3 6/2.

The 23-year old Sanremo native possesses one of the best forehands on tour. Not only is it as powerful as a knock-out punch, but he has strong versatility on it too. It is not a one trick pony and it makes him a very dangerous opponent when its on song.

He is floating under the radar but he showed signs of his potential in the 2024 season with a semi-final run at the Montreal Masters, last 16 finishes at Roland Garros and Miami and competitive defeats to elite tier hard-court players Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz along the way. The challenge for Arnaldi is to piece that form together on a more regular basis.

In the opening week, Arnaldi would go on to lose 7/6 7/6 to Reilly Opelka, but he outplayed the huge serving American winning 14% more points on his second serve. There was not much any player could do against an inspired Opelka in Brisbane as the quality of his first serve was unplayable as Novak Djokovic would discover in the subsequent match.

Mercurial Musetti

Lorenzo Musetti is a year younger than his compatriot and has enjoyed a greater breakthrough at this stage of their respective careers.

The Italian has a wand of a one handed backhand and when he finds time and conditions to his liking he can slice and dice opponents off the court with his craft.

That special ability has proven most effective on the natural surfaces of clay and grass as shown by his 2024 Wimbledon semi-final and the Olympics bronze medal he secured at Roland Garros a few months later.

In addition to his deep run at SW19 he has also made the 4th round at the French Open twice, with his progress understandably ended by Djokovic and Alcaraz.

Musetti is going to be a lively contender once clay season comes around and it will be intriguing to see whether he can make further strides this year.

However, on hard courts he is still working things out. His best results at the hard court Slams are a 2nd round finish in Melbourne last year and a couple of 3rd round finishes in New York.

Musetti's ceiling on a hard court is not as high as there are a couple of key and exploitable weaknesses in his game. Most notably he is at his best when he has time on his side to size up his next shot, and he often finds himself rushed on this surface. Arnaldi will certainly enjoy peppering the backhand wing of his fellow Italian.

Hard court can tilt match-up balance

They have met twice previously on the ATP tour and Musetti has emerged the winner on each occasion. However, both of these matches were on a clay court where it is fair to award Musetti some superiority.

Musetti has shown his vulnerability to upsets on hard court already this season when as the tournament's second seed he lost at around the 1.330/100 mark to the grinding Spanish clay court baseliner Jaume Munar.

It was a match that showed Musetti's weaknesses on this surface as although the highlights package showed an abundance of flashy winners on his part, he was soundly second best on second serve points won winning only 33% to Munar's 52%. Musetti became frustrated by Munar's hard work and grittiness.

Arnaldi not only has the weapons to trouble Musetti on this surface, but his early season form has also looked steadier.

There will also be few surprises between these two friends as Musetti highlighted in his pre-match comments stating, "We have known each other for a long time, I remember when we played together in Genoa, we spent training days and free time together. We played, joked, laughed together so many times. It will not be an easy match for both of us."

This has the potential to be a long match, with Musetti in particular well known for the rollercoaster nature of his matches at the Slams. The starting price of around 2.447/5 on an Arnaldi victory holds appeal, although there might be opportunities for stronger prices in play.

Sportsbook bettors should look out for the market once it becomes available on Arnaldi to win and both players to win a set, which I feel is a sensible approach for this contest.

Now read Ultimate Guide to Australian Open 2025: Betting odds, schedule, how to watch