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No big surprises on day one
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Fonseca rapid ascent
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Rublev's odds drifting
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Rain was the big winner on day one of the Australian Open as the weather prevented many matches from taking to court.
There were no surprises from those that were completed, although Casper Ruud and Hong Kong finalist Kei Nishikori were pushed to their limits surviving five-set slogs against Jaume Munar and Tiago Monteiro respectively.
In the women's draw Qinwen Zheng, Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva advanced without too much trouble while Clara Tauson got this column off to a winning start with an against odds victory over Linda Noskova.
Tuesday will see 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu begin her tournament, but it is difficult as ever to assess where her level is at and she has landed a tricky assignment against the seeded Ekaterina Alexandrova. Meanwhile Aussie hopeful Alex De Minaur will have to be on his game to avoid defeat to the enigmatic Botic van de Zandschulp who conquered Carlos Alcaraz at last year's US Open.
The standout match on day three is the duel between the fast rising Joao Fonseca, touted to become a Grand Slam contender in the not too distant future, against top 10 regular Andrey Rublev who is very much on upset watch.
Fonseca hype
18-year old Joao Fonseca is a player with much hype around him. And to be honest it feels entirely warranted.
In qualifying the Brazilian dropped only 12 games in total across his three matches, an Australian Open record for players under 20 years old that he shares with Carlos Alcaraz.
At the end of 2024 he won the Next Gen Finals in Jeddah, becoming the second youngest winner in history and joining both Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner as 18-year olds to win that event. Fonseca is on track to join the two leading stars of this generation.
He is likely to get there rather quickly with his current data equivalent to that of a top 20 level player, and with obvious room for growth and improvement.
Furthermore, he is on a 13 match winning run following up his dominant Next Gen Finals tournament, that included wins over the highly capable Arthur Fils and Jakub Mensik, followed by victory at the season-opening Challenger event in Canberra before a perfect run in qualifying. He is yet to drop a set in any of his eight matches played this calendar year.
Comparisons to Jannik Sinner are particularly apt. The Brazilian has a similar physical profile to the Italian world number one, and there is also a likeness about how they go about their business on court.
Rublev's falling stock
While Fonseca's stock is clearly high and on a rapid rise, the same can not be said for Andrey Rublev.
The Russian had a torrid 2024, and was evidently unhappy with how things were going on court. In far too many matches Rublev looked in distress and lacking control over how things were unfolding.
He has since spoken about ongoing mental health issues stating that six months ago, "I arrived at the worst moment of my life in terms of how I feel about myself."
In his own words he is feeling much better now and there was an evident coolness about how he handled defeat in Hong Kong in the first week of the season.
As defending champion he lost his opening match to Fabian Marozsan, who to his credit played an exceptional match.
Rublev reflected on that defeat, "The first match is never easy especially when the guy is playing well and hitting super hard with nothing to lose. I was able to come back in the second set but in the third he did better than me, and that's it. He deserved to win."
It would be easy to be downbeat about Rublev's current form and his prospects this season but he didn't play too badly against Marozsan. He got off to a shocking start and once he shook off the rust he was unfortunate to be on the losing end of a match in which he was statistically the superior player.
Rublev would have a positive week overall, reaching the doubles final alongside compatriot Karen Khachanov.
Odds on the drift
The contrasting fortunes of both players has not gone unnoticed by the betting market. Rublev was backed as short as 1.625/8 on the Betfair Exchange upon the market opening. There has since been a significant drift with Rublev 1.758/11 at the time of writing.
For the contest as a whole that price is simply too big on Rublev. While all the signs are positive for Fonseca this is still his very first match at Grand Slam level. He certainly has the talent to beat Rublev, and if he fulfills his potential in the next few years will likely be considered the favourite for such a match.
However, over the best of five sets it is very difficult to get the better of an established pro. Rublev has been at this for a long time now, and this will be his ninth Australian Open.
His record over recent years has been strong making quarter-finals in three of the past four editions and with his last four defeats all coming at the hands of Grand Slam champions - Daniil Medvedev, Marin Cilic, Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner.
Fonseca is likely to have his moments in this match but he is unproven over the distance and that surely favours Rublev.
Likewise, given their respective levels of form and confidence entering this tournament there could be value in Fonseca continuing his 16 set winning streak by bagging the opener. He is priced at 11/102.11 to do so.
Back Joao Fonseca to win set one vs Andrey Rublev
Ultimately it is over the distance where the value in Rublev should reveal itself and I think 1.758/11 is reasonable value for his victory, although there is potential for more exciting odds in play.
Back Andrey Rublev to win vs Joao Fonseca