Australian Open Day 1 Tip: Back Auckland winner Tauson to win at even money

• Tauson injuries could be a thing of the past

• Noskova rusty

• Clear value on Dane at close to evens

Oddsmakers find little to pick between Clara Tauson and Linda Noskova on the first day of action at the 2025 Australian Open.

Both players have been touted for big things having shown several flashes of brilliance early in their young careers. However, progress and achievement in a tennis player's career is rarely linear or constantly on an upward trajectory and currently one of these players is on an upswing while the other is on a momentary downward trend.

Tauson's injury troubles behind her?

Twenty-two-year old Tauson emerged on the tour in 2021 where she collected two titles in Lyon and Luxembourg, taking her to a career high ranking of 33 in the world.

Since then it has been a struggle for the Dane who has had chronic back pain issues. She attempted to compete last season but her movement was rigid and it was difficult to watch her failing to fulfill her obvious talent due to physical limitations.

When she was breaking through Tauson was viewed by many as a potential Grand Slam challenger. She possesses a booming serve, which she backs up with surprising technical qualities off the ground for a tall player in WTA terms.

Perhaps her biggest asset is her confidence, which borderlines upon arrogance. She has unwavering self-belief in her own abilities in the good times. So much so that when losing to Donna Vekic in the 2021 Courmayeur final she stated at the trophy ceremony that her opponent only won because Tauson had not played well.

There is no doubting her talent but she has barely had an injury-free spell where she can put her ability to good use.

It was pleasing therefore to see her impressive start to the season where she landed the title in Auckland - her first career success on an indoor hard court.

She was playing with swagger defeating Madison Keys and Sofia Kenin en route to the championship match with Naomi Osaka, who was forced to retire with injury after a quality and increasingly competitive first set.

Tauson showed her quality throughout the week and should her health hold up, her potential ceiling is very high.

The Dane recognises the good state of her game currently saying, "I've worked really hard to get to this level after many injuries. I'm looking forward to going to Australia. Hopefully I can back [this] up with some great results there."

Not so good Noskova

I have similar confidence in 20-year old Linda Noskova's ability to enjoy a very fulfilling career. The Czech player landed a first career title in Monterrey last year and also navigated a quarter-final run in this event.

Unfortunately, there is little reason to be confident about her chances of defending those ranking points this time around.

Her form this season has been poor, with her only win of the campaign so far against Romanian player Anca Todoni who has done her best work on clay courts.

Noskova won only three games against Mirra Andreeva when they met in Brisbane, and she followed this up with a heavy defeat to Maria Sakkari in Adelaide.

While at first glance there is no shame in losing to either of these reputable names there was every reason to be concerned with performances that raised red flags before my eyes.

Noskova bundled 34 unforced errors to only seven winners against Andreeva, and although there is no doubting that the Russian youngster is already a top talent, the self-defeating display from Noskova was a really poor effort.

Thirty-four unforced error points is the equivalent of nine games. To hand your opponent a consistent stream of free points and only offset this with seven winners is alarming.

Sakkari match signpost

Similarly, her defeat to Sakkari is worrying. This is not the Maria Sakkari of the past, the Greek is badly out of form and is quickly plummeting down the rankings.

It is Sakkari's only win of the season so far which has included a shambolic 6/2 6/1 defeat to the limited Spaniard Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, and an uncompetitive drubbing by Elena Rybakina at the United Cup who should have won by a greater margin but took her foot off the gas near the finishing line.

This was followed in Adelaide by a loss in qualifying to Peyton Stearns, who is now guided by Sakkari's former coach Tom Hill, and a disastrous 6/4 6/1 pasting by Jess Pegula.

Yet, Noskova somehow only won six games against Sakkari. Again the unforced error account was very generous from the Czech who gifted 35 free points to her opponent.

Sakkari has been struggling to control her own hitting this year but was happy enough against Noskova to retrieve shots and play passively as Noskova was handing her the match on a silver platter.

The timing on Noskova's shots has been completely off, she has not shown good form so far this season and if Tauson plays as she did in Auckland she should be confident in her chances.

Tauson is a strong server and is happy to vacuum the unforced errors from her opponent. Just ask the aggressive hitting Madison Keys who donated 40 to the Tauson cause in Auckland. Even then Keys was able to score 36 winners and still not win.

With Noskova not at her best, and unlikely on current form to generate enough winners from her attacking baseline game I can't agree with her perceived favouritism in this contest.

Tauson is currently 2.01/1 on the exchange to win this match, which is an outcome I would consider backing even if it shortens in the coming hours.

Now read Ultimate Guide to Australian Open 2025: Betting odds, schedule, how to watch