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Big names on collision course
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Pavlyuchenkova returning to top form
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Vekic winning, but underwhelming
The expected title contenders are all still in the Australian Open for both the men's and women's events. As the first week concludes we are a step closer to watching the big names face off against one other.
Novak Djokovic produced his best performance of the season to easily swat off the expected challenge of Tomas Machac, which unfortunately failed to materialise. The Czech had been playing some exceptional stuff of late yet could barely land a glove against the Serbian master who boxed him clever.
It means we are now a match away from a potential meeting of Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, who in the fourth round will likely see off a war weary Jack Draper who has survived three energy sapping five setters. Draper has competed well but hasn't been at his best and it would be a huge upset if he has enough in the tank to battle past Alcaraz.
On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka ended the winning streak for this column as she saw off Clara Tauson in straight sets. I tipped the Dane at 2/13.00 to land a set and she came mighty close breaking her opponent four times in set one, leading 5/3 and also holding a 5/4 lead in the tie-break. You don't get away with not converting such gilt edged chances against the world number one.
Sabalenka remains on course to meet Coco Gauff next week in the semi-finals. The American second favourite in the outright markets is on a roll winning all eight matches this season and 16 consecutive sets.
The expectations are lower for the players that I am focusing on in Sunday's preview, as neither Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova or Donna Vekic have realistic prospects of winning their first Grand Slam this week. However, I do see a touch of value on Pavlyuchenkova continuing her recent form.
Pavlyuchenkova pressure
33-year old Pavlyuchenkova is in good from, demonstrating consistent performances at the start of the 2025 season. The Russian decided to end her 2024 season in September in order to recover from a back issue, and looks refreshed from her time off court.
In the opening week of the season she contested a high quality encounter with former Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova in which the players combined to hit over 100 winners past each other.
Pavlyuchenkova has carried that attacking form into the Australian Open where she has won a couple of tough matches against Yue Yuan and Anastasia Potapova.
The match-up with Potapova is generally a good indicator of her current level of form as these matches are typically closely fought, but if Pavlyuchenkova is returning well she finds a way to win.
It is this return of serve quality that has been the highlight of Pav's form this season. She is clubbing the ball and is dialled in on this key shot. When that is working she is a nightmare draw for anyone.
Just ask Laura Siegemund who dispatched Qinwen Zheng in the previous round yet could scrape only three games from the Russian on Friday.
Risk and reward
Pavlyuchenkova is an attacking player that will take risks under pressure and has the firepower to hit through most opponents when she has some form.
It is this approach that has been key to Pavlyuchenkova's success over Vekic in the past. She has won her two meetings with Vekic in straight sets, both played on hard court and within the last 18 months.
She outgunned Vekic on each occasion who simply could not cope with the firepower being directed her way. Despite that Vekic has been installed as a 1.784/5 favourite to win this match.
Since they last met Vekic had a couple of excellent showings at Wimbledon, where she made the semi-final, and at the Paris Olympics where she secured a silver medal.
A button clicked for Vekic, who realised that her best outcomes come as a result of being aggresive. However, I am sceptical that this is the same Vekic of that admittedly impressive summer form spell.
Firstly, these notable stretches of form - that have enhanced her standing in oddsmakers eyes - both occurred on natural clay and grass surfaces. She has not replicated that form to the hard courts with a five win to seven loss record since the Olympics on this surface, including her three wins this tournament.
Even in victory I have not been entirely enamoured by Vekic's performances this season. Diana Parry is bang out of form yet kept the scoreline respectable, while she required three sets to see off British lucky loser Harriet Dart who was not able to sustain her early level in that match due to injury.
There is a level of respect for beating Diana Shnaider in her most recent match although I expected that outcome. Shnaider has not been at peak fitness this tournament and looked hampered in the deciding set of this match.
In the warm up events Vekic played poorly in one sided defeats to Leylah Fernandez and Yulia Putintseva, punished for overly safe play and allowing her opponents time to hit her shots. If she does that again against Pavlyuchenkova it has been proven how that will play out.
Furthermore, Vekic is without her regular coach Pam Shriver who was at her side during the summer run. The American did not travel to Australia as planned due to the devastating fires that have caused the Los Angeles native personal upheaval.
Good odds on Pavlyuchenkova
With an accumulation of small doubts regarding Vekic and Pavlyuchenkova showing form - as well as a convincing head to head in the Russian's favour - I see value in her 2.166/5 price to win this contest.
Back Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win vs Donna Vekic