Australian Open Day 6 Tip: In-form Tauson can push defending champion Sabalenka

• Youngsters making a name in Melbourne

• Sabalenka unconvincing

• Tauson has confidence

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The next generation of tennis stars have arrived. A day after 18-year old Joao Fonseca stunned top tenner Andrey Rublev, 19-year old Jakub Mensik took out 6th seed Casper Ruud landing a win for this column in the process.

It marks the first time two teenagers have defeated top ten players in the same Grand Slam tournament since Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic achieved this feat at Wimbledon 2006. Fonseca and Mensik are keeping very good company.

Elsewhere on Wednesday we saw Britain's top ten candidate Jack Draper survive an epic five setter against Thanasi Kokkinakis who served for the match in set four, while in the women's draw the biggest upset of the tournament so far occurred as Qinwen Zheng crashed out at the hands of veteran German journeywoman Laura Siegemund.

On day six the wheat starts to separate from the chaff as the seeded players meet each other, or the players that have claimed a seeded scalp.

In round two Djokovic looked shaky once again, dropping a set in his defeat of the 125th ranked qualifier Jaime Faria, and looks a very short 2/91.22 price to defeat Tomas Machac 3/14.00. The Czech has started this season in strong form, carrying on his promising finish to 2024, and he has a better chance than the odds indicate against the 10 time champ.

However, it is a high profile player in the women's draw I am targeting with my Friday pick.

Shaky Sabalenka

There is enough evidence running back to the World Tour Finals to suggest that Aryna Sabalenka isn't quite firing on all cylinders.

The Belarusian was a heavy favourite to leave Riyadh as champion but would lose to both Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff despite being priced pre-match as a comfortable winner in each duel.

Sabalenka lived up to her favourite billing in Brisbane where she landed the title, but not without some shaky moments against Yulia Putintseva, Mirra Andreeva and Polina Kudermetova who was unfortunate not to lead their final by a set and a break.

Of course, Sabalenka is enjoying a winning run but her second round victory over Jessica Bouzas Maneiro was far from impressive as her ball striking was inconsistent against quite a limited opponent.

Sabalenka remains favourite for this tournament but she is not playing anywhere near as sharp as she did this time last year when she won the Australian Open without dropping a set. Through the first three rounds at the 2024 event she dropped only six games, but this year through only two matches she has given up 13.

She dropped serve three times against Bouzas Maneiro, encountering a worrying 11 break points along the way, and was broken twice by Sloane Stephens in her opening match. There is plenty of evidence to suggest this is not Sabalenka at her best and I think she is looking less invincible than previous editions of this tournament.

Triumphant Tauson

One of the stories of the 2025 season to date has been the re-emergence of Clara Tauson after a horrid injury-impact three years.

The Dane broke on to the scene in 2021 with a couple of tour titles before one back injury after another halted her ranking's rise.

This year she has enjoyed good health and was able to capture a title in the Auckland - her first on an outdoor hard court.

Along the way she scored notable wins over Sofia Kenin and Madison Keys - who a week later would notch the championship in Adelaide. Tauson's wins against these players could provide her with a formula to give Sabalenka a tough time.

Both Kenin and Keys are decisive, attacking players whose modus operandi is to play aggressively and on the front foot. Sabalenka is the premier and most refined version of that type of player.

Tauson had plenty of joy controlling these players hitting power, neutralising the weapons while using variety to unsettle their rhythm.

She is yet to lose a match in 2025 and if she maintains her standards, and Sabalenka fails to improve her current level then she should give the world number one a competitive match here.

Through their first two matches at this tournament Tauson has been serving better than Sabalenka winning 79% on her first ball against Linda Noskova, and 86% against Tatjana Maria in round two. This contrasts positively against the 69% won by Sabalenka against Sloane Stephens in round one and disappointing 61% against Bouzas Maneiro.

Close run from Clara the best bet

Aryna Sablenka remains the outright favourite for a good reason. She is a proven champion and there is every chance she builds form fitting of that status as the tournament progresses.

However, her opponent is already in strong form and has shown that she can beat similar styled opposition. She is also yet to lose a match in this campaign.

Sabalenka is a whopping 1/101.10 to overcome Tauson which feels disrespectful to her opponent's current standards and an optimistic appraisal of her own form. Tauson is an alluring 6/17.00 to get the job done.

I don't dispute Sabalenka's favouritism but those odds don't strike me as fair. Sabalenka will likely win but I think Tauson is a strong candidate to win a set here and the 2/13.00 price on Tauson with a +1.5 set handicap is good value.

Unless there is a significant upswing in Sabalenka's level I would be surprised if this is an easy win.

Now read Ultimate Guide to Australian Open 2025: Betting odds, schedule, how to watch