Australian Open Women's Singles: Back resurgent former champ Osaka at 25/1

• Former champion Osaka is value bet at 25/126.00

• Take on Rybakina with Paolini at 4/15.00

• Back Swiatek to reach final at 21/10

The top two seeds Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will both be fairly happy with the way the Australian Open draw has shaken out.

Sabalenka, who is hunting a third straight title at Melbourne Park, should fancy her chances of another strong run while Swiatek should have her eyes on at least a semi-final from her manageable fourth quarter.

Elsewhere my personal outright pick Coco Gauff should be optimistic about a deep run that would send her on a semi-final collision course with Sabalenka.

However, I am less optimistic about the prospects of Elena Rybakina, whose form is still warming up after persistent health issues in 2024.

Sabalenka v Zheng re-match likely at Australian Open

If all goes to form quarter one will deliver a re-match of the 2024 final between Sabalenka 8/131.61 and Qinwen Zheng 5/16.00.

It is a match that the Belarusian will be favourite to win as she has handled the Chinese player comfortably in each of their five career meetings to date, only dropping one set along the way.

It is not inconceivable, given Zheng's rapid rate of improvement, that she defeats Sabalenka in that match but it is not a prediction I am willing to commit to until we have seen Zheng's form this season. Zheng did not play any warm-up events.

We know how well Sabalenka is playing having already added a trophy to her collection this season. She carries a formidable record into this event winning 27 of her previous 28 matches Down Under.

However, both Sabalenka and Zheng will need to be on their toes from the start as there are several high potential propositions lurking in case of any slip up from the favoured duo.

Mirra Andreeva 15/28.50 is the youngest player in the top 175 ranked players of the world and already has a Grand Slam semi-final on her CV. It is a matter of time before she is competing regularly for such titles.

Former-Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova 20/121.00 can beat anyone on her day but unfortunately injured her back last week, while Polina Kudermetova 25/126.00 led Sabalenka by a set in the Brisbane final.

It was a breakthrough week for the Russian qualifier and she looks a great prospect going forward, but her lack of tour experience is a turn off for this event.

Good omens for Gauff

So far 2025 has been a strong campaign for Coco Gauff who is 11/102.11 to reach the semi-finals from quarter two. She did not drop a set across her five United Cup victories, including impressive wins over both Karolina Muchova and Iga Swiatek.

It is a good omen that the market's second favourite in this quarter is Muchova 4/15.00 as their match was very comfortable for the American only one week and a half ago.

Muchova has the talent to hang with the highest ranked players, and has achieved several deep Grand Slam runs. But she will need an opponent to take out Gauff on her behalf if their recent meeting is anything to go by.

The biggest threat to Gauff in this quarter may be a resurgent Naomi Osaka 17/29.50. The Japanese player was hitting the ball cleanly in Auckland and looked to be in fine rhythm before she retired as a precaution when leading Clara Tauson by a set in the final.

Osaka in that kind of form is a serious contender to win the title, and is the most credible option outside of the top five to bring it home. There are worse bets than 25/126.00 on the former two time champion Osaka to go all the way.

Paolini can make final four

Although she is one of the favourites to go all the way, I have reservations about Elena Rybakina, who I feel is an opposable 11/82.38 favourite to win quarter three.

The Kazakhstani looked a yard slow in some of her United Cup matches, and she was also defeated in a practice set by Emma Raducanu this week.

She is also the subject of unfolding off-court drama as her long-term coach Stefano Vukov is currently awaiting the results of a suspension hearing from the WTA regarding his alleged mistreatment of Rybakina. The former Wimbledon champion has lept to the defence of her coach, but as it stands he is unable to enter the grounds as her coach for this tournament.

This unwelcome distraction combined with her own underwhelming form may open the door to an opponent taking advantage.

This is not a quarter packed full of strong options and I believe that Jasmine Paolini 4/15.00 could be the beneficiary. The Italian made the French Open and Wimbledon finals last season, and is capable of doing damage on hard courts too as her title win in Dubai shows.

The other prominent names in quarter three are the never dependable Madison Keys 4/15.00 who alternates good and bad days, and Danielle Collins 16/117.00 who is on a downturn in form since a purple patch in the early months of last season.

Paolini is in the peak moment of her career, even beating Rybakina recently at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, and I trust the stability of her current level as a more viable alternative to Rybakina than the unpredictable American duo.

Swiatek's opportunity

Perhaps the biggest winner of the women's draw is Iga Swiatek who has landed a plum draw. The Polish star has a decent opportunity to land her first Australian Open.

There is no questioning the former US Open champion's ability on a hard court, or her current form. Swiatek showed at the United Cup that she is going to be applying an all out attack approach on faster surfaces this year under the tutelage of renowned coach Wim Fissette who has guided Kim Clijsters, Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams to major success.

Her path to at least the semi-final is reasonable. Second favourite in the quarter Emma Navarro 10/111.00 is bang out of form, while it will be a surprise if Emma Raducanu 12/113.00 and Ons Jabeur 12/113.00 can handle the physical demands of a deep run so soon in their latest attempted comebacks.

With Swiatek's soft draw she looks a good bet to reach the final at 21/10.

Now read Australian Open Men's Singles: Back Shelton at 13/1 in soft quarter as Zverev struggles