Australian Open Women's Singles: Gauff primed for grand slam success but 66/1 shot appeals too

• Sabalenka has the winning feeling

• 10/34.33 Gauff on the march

• The Russians are coming

In 2024 Aryna Sabalenka was head and shoulders above the pack on a hard court.

The Belarusian won both Slams played on the surface last year, including a defence of her Australian Open crown. She has started this season in fine form already scooping a title in Brisbane and is on a phenomenal run Down Under winning 27 of her last 28 matches across her past three campaigns.

Sabalenka is a deserving favourite to win the 2025 edition, priced at 11/53.20 prior to Thursday's draw.

However, unlike in the men's event where Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz look the players to beat - read my thoughts on the men's tournament here - the talent pool is deep in the women's game and Sabalenka will have to produce her sharpest level if she is to escape Melbourne with a hattrick of titles.

Gauff is top contender

The top of the market looks about right, as Coco Gauff starts alongside Sabalenka on the front of the grid priced as the 10/34.33 second favourite.

At the WTA's year end finals played in November, clear cracks appeared in Sabalenka's hard court dominance. The Belarusian was touted as a skinny favourite to leave Riyadh as champion but faltered, losing by a reasonable margin to Gauff, who went on to win the event.

Prior to the WTA Finals Gauff changed her coaching set-up and not only are the results showing the wisdom of that decision, but the performances that go with it have demonstrated that her game has arrived at a new peak.

Gauff has been derided over recent years for a wonky second serve and for the waywardness of her forehand. So far in 2025 she has largely kept her double faulting issue at bay, while in the rallies she has made it incredibly difficult to attack the forehand and is playing with safety and control on that wing.

She has made a perfect start to the season winning all five of her matches in straight sets, all of which were against quality opposition, including a dismantling of the hugely talented Karolina Muchova before her second consecutive victory over Iga Swiatek.

The Polish star provides the perfect measure for where the Gauff game is at currently as prior to Riyadh, Swiatek had battered Gauff in 11 of their 12 meetings, but the American has now won their two most recent meetings finding the answers to a match-up that had proven her achilles heel.

Gauff looks confident and has the air of a champion in waiting. At 10/34.33 I view her as the player to beat.

Resurgent Rybakina

After a torrid injury and illness-impacted 2024 season it is great to see Elena Rybakina back in the mix. The former Wimbledon champion has started the year in good health, and under the tutelage of the great Goran Ivanisevic it is easy to build a case for her to compete for the title.

She is the only player to have defeated Sabalenka in Australia since 2023 and I can understand the appeal on her winning the title at 8/19.00.

Rybakina pushed Australian Open third favourite Iga Swiatek 9/25.50 to a close match in Sydney last week, and there is very little to pick between them.

I view them as justified third and fourth favourites, and I would be surprised if the winner of this tournament did not come from the quartet at the top of the market.

I do, however, view Gauff and Sabalenka as marginally ahead of Swiatek and Rybakina.

Close competitors

Women's tennis is in strong health heading into this new season with a further batch of four players primed to push the established talents.

Twelve months ago Qinwen Zheng made her maiden Grand Slam final in Melbourne and starts this year as the 16/117.00 fifth favourite. The Chinese player has taken massive strides forward since then, reaching a career high world ranking of five and is set to become a consistent contender at the majors.

Zheng withdrew from the United Cup event, citing her desire for extra rest after her prolonged 2024 campaign and although this may have been precautionary there is no form guide for her heading into this year's event.

We have, however, seen good things from the trio of Karolina Muchova 19/120.00, Naomi Osaka 22/123.00 and Jasmine Paolini 35/136.00.

Muchova made the Australian Open semi-final in 2021 and is highly capable of going on a run again. The Czech is a phenomenally talented player who despite terrible luck with lengthy spells on the injury table still had runs to the 2023 French Open final and 2023 and 2024 US Open semi-finals.

She has matches under her belt and none of the top seeds will want to see her in their draw.

In Auckland, Naomi Osaka reached a first hard court final since the Miami Open in 2022. The Japanese superstar left the tour to have her first baby and put in the groundwork on her return to tennis last season to have a decent crack at the top prizes in this campaign.

Unfortunately Osaka retired in the Auckland final when a set up and in a flood of tears due to an abdominal injury. There is no doubting her class and should she heal up this week, the 2019 and 2021 Australian Open champion will be very dangerous.

Jasmine Paolini has started this season where she left off last year with some dominant wins at the United Cup. Having reached two Grand Slam finals at the French Open and Wimbledon last year the Italian knows how work her way through a major draw and will be seeded 5th this time round, a very useful platform for a proven Grand Slam commodity.

Youthful Russian duo on the rise

The next generation of stars are quickly on the up, hot on the heels of the top tier challengers.

Two Russian youngsters are leading the charge with 20-year old Diana Shnaider 66/167.00 and 17-year old wonderkid Mirra Andreeva 22/123.00 the pick of the bunch.

Shnaider had an exceptional 2024, rising to 12 in the world rankings and winning multiple titles along the way. She plays exceptionally smart tennis and has a level-headed temperament that will put her in contention for major honours in the not too distant future.

If she finds her form in Melbourne she has the talent to go far.

Andreeva partnered Shnaider to doubles success in Brisbane last week, and while for Shnaider a potential rise is likely, there is an inevitability about Andreeva's pending success.

At a world ranking of 14 not only is Andreeva the youngest player in the top 20, she is actually the youngest player in the top 175.

She is going to be special sooner rather than later and showed why when giving Sabalenka a serious run for her money in Brisbane last week.

Andreeva created eight break points compared to Sabalenka's five, and was outmanoeuvring the world number one for fun. She would lose the match in straight sets but it was a lot closer than the scoreline suggests.

It is worth keeping an eye out for this talented duo over the next few weeks. At 66/167.00 Shnaider is an appealing price that can give a good run for your money.

Now read my preview of the men's tournament at the Australian Open