ATP Winston-Salem Betting: Sousa a value underdog against Djere

The week in Winston-Salem got off to a nice start for our bets on Monday when Peter Gojowczyk beat a hapless Jiri Lehecka in straight sets before James Duckworth covered the handicap (and won the match in the end) against Thanasi Kokkinakis.

It's always tough in pre-slam weeks, but I like the price on one player in particular today and that's Joao Sousa against Laslo Djere.

Djere started his Winston-Salem campaign very nicely with a win as underdog against David Goffin who's gone off the boil badly since playing so well at Wimbledon.

Goffin remains a total enigma, going from a set away from a Wimbledon semi-final to losing to the likes of Djere and Albert Ramos on hard courts (plus Marcos Giron and Jack Sock).

Djere will take it, as that's a rare win on hard courts for him. It could be the case that the humid, damp, and therefore slow conditions in Winston-Salem on Sunday helped this clay court specialist on the day against Goffin.

I still can't have him as a 1.584/7 favourite on a hard court against Joao Sousa though, with the Portuguese scrapper one of those players who's often played his best tennis before and after majors (although not at this tournament yet).

He won Pune this year (in quicker conditions than here in Winston-Salem) just after the Australian Open and made the final on clay (at slight altitude) in Geneva a few days before the French Open, plus he's made several other career finals in and around majors.

So, he's not likely to roll over here against Djere, whose hard court stats are inferior to those of Sousa, both in the last 12 months and in their careers as a whole.

Djere has struggled to break on hard courts, winning only 31% of return points on outdoor hard courts in the last year at main level, which is just five percent more than John Isner's mark.

Djere's combined service points won/return points won total is a weak 95, which is not the sort of total you'd want from a 1.584/7 favourite against an opponent ranked 30 spots higher in the world.

Sousa weighs in with a combined total of 98 in service points won/return points won and in terms of hold/break totals, Sousa leads that too (98 compared to 93), so I'm seeing a pretty poor price on Djere here.

The price is about Sousa's lack of form (and possibly about his awful record in Winston-Salem), but he's shown plenty of times that he's still capable of popping up with very good weeks at this level.

So, I'm happy to back him at 2.68/5 here, with conditions forecast to be sunny and therefore quicker on Tuesday, which will help Sousa.

Millman can cover the handicap against Ramos

I was hoping that John Millman was going to be underdog against Albert Ramos, but it seems that I won't get my way there, with Millman slight favourite.

The Aussie is much more likely to put in a decent effort this week than Ramos, whose record in pre-major weeks is poor.

Indeed, Millman beat Ramos as slight favourite here in Winston-Salem in their only career meeting, but that was six years ago now.

I'm not entirely sure why Ramos plays this tournament, as he's 0-5 win/loss here and 2-10 in sets, so clearly the motivation levels for the Spaniard are low when arriving in Winston-Salem.

Ramos' five matches in Winston-Salem have seen him produce a combined service points won/return points won total of just 87 and a hold/break total of 73, which are shocking stats for a player of Ramos' calibre.

Only two weeks ago in Montreal, Ramos beat Goffin and Diego Schwartzman and very nearly beat Hubert Hurkacz, but when he gets to Winston-Salem he vanishes without trace.

Millman, on the other hand, is 7-3 win/loss here, with a combined service points won/return points won total of 105 and a hold/break total of 110, so if things carry on as they have in Winston-Salem for both players, the minus games on Millman appeals.

The Aussie has already had one match here and played well in it, beating Hugo Gaston comfortably, and the likely quicker conditions at 2pm local time on Tuesday, when this match is played, should also favour Millman.

I like the idea of backing Millman on the handicap, so -2.5 games at 2.26/5 looks the bet for me here. Both bets today are half a point wins.