ATP Winston-Salem Betting: Conditions give Gojowczyk a chance against Lehecka

It's a last chance for the players to get some match time ahead of the US Open this week in Winston-Salem and the stats suggest that this is usually a pretty good week for underdog backers.

With New York only a week away there are often some unusual results in Winston-Salem, which is a tournament that's averaged 37% underdog winners in the last eight editions.

Interestingly, there has been a higher frequency of dog winners in the quarters, semis and the final (50%, 63% and 50% respectively) than in rounds one, two, and three, which indicates that plenty of the more fancied players have delivered less than committed performances later in the week.

That would fit with the idea that a fair few of the seeds are here just to get two or three matches under their belts before New York rather than aiming to win the tournament.

Indeed, only two number one seeds have made the final of Winston Salem in the 10 editions that have been staged so far.

They play on a Laykold outdoor hard court at slight altitude (290m) at the Wake Forest University and the stats suggest it's rather average in terms of speed: 77% average service holds and 36% tie break matches.

Average service holds are based on the last five editions, four of which were played on Decoturf, but the only Laykold edition of Winston-Salem averaged 77% holds as well and only 28% tie break matches.

Round one has averaged 36% underdog winners in the last eight editions and on Monday I like the idea of siding with Peter Gojowczyk and James Duckworth.

Gojowczyk needs to start getting results quickly, as he's in danger of his ranking dropping down to around number 180 if he loses early here and in round one in New York next week.

We saw the hugely inconsistent German at his best at last year's US Open in very similar conditions to here in Winston-Salem when he made the last-16 as a qualifier and lost in five sets to Carlos Alcaraz.

At his best he's a formidable opponent for most, but we haven't seen anything like his best this season yet, and he needs to find it quickly.

This looks a good opportunity to get some confidence back against Jiri Lehecka, whose price is based largely on his good recent form on the clay.

Lehecka won the Liberec Challenger just over a week ago on the clay and made the quarter finals in Kitzbuhel before that, so his form has been good, but he's coming from clay to outdoor hard, where he's barely played at this level.

The Czech did play well on slow indoor hard in Rotterdam earlier this season, but he's 0-1 lifetime on outdoor hard at main level (lost to Dimitrov at the Australian Open) and he lost all three of his matches on grass this summer.

He doesn't look like he's got the movement at the moment to be much of a factor when conditions are quicker and Gojowczyk's flat hitting style will take Lehecka's time away.

Gojowczyk's poor form makes him a decent price and I'll take half a point on the German at 3.3512/5 here.

The other favourite that looks opposable in round one the week before a major is Thanasi Kokkinakis, who's been inconsistent of late and might not be up for it this week.

Kokky definitely wasn't up for it (in singles at least) in Atlanta when he lost in straight sets as a 1.152/13 chance to wild card Andres Martin, or the week later in Los Cabos when he was beaten by Steve Johnson as a 1.501/2 shot.

Last week in Cincy he got a retirement from Benoit Paire and then sneaked a match he won fewer points in versus Ilya Ivashka before performing much better - as he often does - on the bigger stage against Jannik Sinner.

It could be the case that the hardworking Duckworth simply wants it more this week than Kokkinakis

Now he faces a more mundane match against fellow Aussie, James Duckworth, who's looking to return to form after injury pretty much ruined the first half of the year.

Only 11 months ago, Duckworth made his first main level final (in Nur Sultan) and he started this season top-50 in the world, so having dropped down to number 84 after that injury he'll be keen to get going again.

And it could be the case that the hardworking Duckworth simply wants it more this week than Kokkinakis, plus he won't fear Kokky, having beaten him twice (their only two career meetings) years ago at Challenger level.

I like the +3.5 games on Duckworth here at around 1.9110/11 for half a point.