ATP Washington Tips: Is the time right to take a chance on Paire?

Sean Calvert
03 August 2022

Paire could be a touch of value against struggling Rune

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Round two of the Citi Open in Washington DC continues on Wednesday and after two winners on Tuesday, Sean Calvert is back with three more wagers...

"I'm keen to take on Rune, who hasn't exactly been in great form himself, losing every match he's played since beating Stefanos Tsitsipas at the French Open (0-7)."

We found two winners from our three bets on Tuesday, with underdogs Yoshihito Nishioka and Dominik Koepfer both winning their opening sets to bring the 2-0 lays of Jenson Brooksby and Karen Khachanov to a swift conclusion, but Nick Kyrgios was in great form against Marcos Giron.

Moving on to Wednesday now and it doesn't feel entirely comfortable writing this, but is Benoit Paire a touch of value on Wednesday against Holger Rune?

Maybe, just maybe, Paire has woken up a bit after dropping out of the top-100 on Monday and he played pretty well in round one against an admittedly out of form Peter Gojowczyk.

Paire served well and perhaps most importantly he seemed to actually enjoy himself, saying on Instagram words to the effect of 'STEP BY STEP. It feels good to have fun on the court."

Knowing Benoit, it's entirely possible that his good mood may have abated by Wednesday, but I'm keen to take on Rune, who hasn't exactly been in great form himself, losing every match he's played since beating Stefanos Tsitsipas at the French Open (0-7).

He was also struggling with injury last week on the clay of Umag and Paire won't get many better chances than this to beat Rune and advance potentially to the quarter finals (he'd face the winner of Denis Shapovalov and JJ Wolf if he beat Rune).

Rune is 1-5 win/loss at main level so far in his career on outdoor hard, with a combined service points won/return points won total of 98, which is one point better than Paire's total in the Frenchman's last 12-months on this surface at main level.

And bearing in mind that Paire has tried in about 10% of those matches you feel that a reasonably committed performance from Paire could well be enough today.

It's always risky with Benoit of course, so I'll take half a point at 3.55/2.

Wolf too short against out of form Shapovalov

Speaking of Denis Shapovalov, he looks a shaky favourite against the improving JJ Wolf, who impressed in round one against Taro Daniel.

Shapo has been really out of sorts in the last few months and it's hard to know what to expect of him this summer on hard courts, which is reflected in his price of around 1.625/8 to beat Wolf.

Wolf seems to be one of those players that enjoys the bigger stage and it wouldn't surprise me if he beat Shapo here, but 2.526/4 seems much too short about a player that was beaten (albeit by retirement in set three) by Donald Young last week.

Young is now at 622 in the world and the week before that Wolf lost to 322-ranked Billy Young, so I'm not seeing any value in Wolf's price here at all.

Fritz could be challenged by powerful Popyrin

Another player that looks very short in price is Taylor Fritz, who has a weak record at this time of the year and who may well be on a bit of a downer after his failure to beat an injured Rafa Nadal at Wimbledon.

Fritz is just 2-9 win/loss in Washington DC, the Canada Masters and the Cincy Masters and in these quick DC conditions I'd expect him to find Alexei Popyrin a decent test in Fritz's first hard court match since March.

Fritz is just 2-9 win/loss in Washington DC, the Canada Masters and the Cincy Masters

Breaking Fritz's record down further, he's done well in Los Cabos, but in all main level outdoor hard matches played in August he's lost seven of his last eight and 10 of his last 14.

So, he looks short at 1.182/11 given that record and I'm happy to take Popyrin for half a point here with a 3.5 game start on the handicap at 2.26/5.

Ruusuvuori and Ymer possible odds-against winners

Hubert Hurkacz AO 2022.jpg

I'm on Emil Ruusuvuori outright this week, so I don't need to back him today, but he's got a decent chance of upsetting second seed Hubert Hurkacz, who may pay the price for inactivity since losing in round one of Wimbledon.

Mikael Ymer is a possibility if Aslan Karatsev struggles to adapt from playing at altitude on clay to hard courts in DC, but I prefer a small multi today in matches that are likely to involve few breaks of serve.

Breaks of serve at a premium in big-serving clashes

Maxime Cressy Eastbourne 2022.jpg

Reilly Opelka is an obvious one against Denis Kudla, but Christopher Eubanks is another perhaps less obvious one against Frances Tiafoe, and Maxime Cressy is always likely to hold and not break much - he faces another strong server in Jack Sock (if Sock plays, as he had injury issues with his arm on Tuesday).

If we take over 10.5 games in set one of all three of these matches, the multi pays 12.38, so I'll take that for half a point given the quick conditions here in DC.