ATP Washington Tips: Nishioka can take advantage against fatigued Brooksby

Sean Calvert
02 August 2022

Nishioka may be facing Brooksby at a good time for the Japanese left-hander

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Round one of the 2022 Citi Open in Washington DC continues on Tuesday and Sean Calvert is back with three bets to consider...

"For me, this is the sort of match-up that Brooksby isn’t that comfortable with, against an opponent that can move as well as him, and Brooksby doesn’t like being the aggressor – he’s better suited to soaking up opponents’ pace."

We managed to get off to a good start on Monday when Mikael Ymer not only covered the handicap but beat Andy Murray on day one of the Citi Open.

Murray, as I thought he might possibly do, struggled in the heat and humidity here and I wonder how well Jenson Brooksby will shape up this week in DC after a run to the final in very hot and humid conditions last week in Atlanta?

Given his playing style that usually features a lot of long rallies, I'd suggest that at some point this week he may start to fatigue or even break down physically if he makes the quarters or semis in what will be similarly tough conditions in DC.

Brooksby looked pretty tired at the end of what was a disappointing showing in that Atlanta title match loss to Alex De Minaur and he hasn't had long to prep for a round one match against Yoshihito Nishioka.

For me, this is the sort of match-up (as was De Minaur) that Brooksby isn't that comfortable with, against an opponent that can move as well as him, and Brooksby doesn't like being the aggressor - he's better suited to soaking up opponents' pace.

Given his playing style that usually features a lot of long rallies, I'd suggest that at some point this week Brooksby may start to fatigue

He won't get much pace from the weak-serving Nishioka, who should also have more energy than Brooskby in what will be a physical match (Nishioka last played on July 15), plus Nishi beat Brooksby as recently as January this year.

That match was at the Columbus Challenger on indoor hard in the semi finals when Brooskby was top seed and a 1.402/5 chance to beat Nishioka, but the Japanese lefty won it 6-3, 6-4.

Brooksby has also lost his last four matches against left-handers: Draper, Gaston, Norrie and Nishioka and won just one set in those four matches.

So, I'm happy to take Brooksby on here, and laying Brooksby to win it 2-0 at 2.01/1 looks a bet for one point.

Giron likely to provide stern resistance against Kyrgios

Marcos Giron Halle 2022.jpg

Nick Kyrgios also played a lot of tennis last week in Atlanta - but not in singles - he only played doubles and ended up winning the title with Thanasi Kokkinakis after withdrawing from singles citing a knee injury.

That doubles final was on Sunday in Atlanta and Kyrgios had to be in DC the very next day - again playing doubles - as he played a round one match with Jack Sock on Monday in the capital.

It could be argued that that doubles match has given NK a feel for conditions here in DC and that may well be the case, but he hasn't played singles since Wimbledon and Marcos Giron will be a tough round one for Kyrgios.

The pair have never faced each other on the tour until now, but Giron has had some success against big servers in the past, beating Matteo Berrettini indoors in Paris last season and Ivo Karlovic to win the Houston Challenger.

Six of the last 10 sets Giron's played against the big servers in my database have gone to tie breaks

Six of the last 10 sets he's played against the big servers in my database have gone to tie breaks, so I'm of a mind to play the over games here, with the line of interest the over 21.5 games, which is a 1.834/5 chance for one point.

Ivashka likely to be low on energy against Korda

Ilya Ivashka Halle 2022.jpg

The other player that's coming from Atlanta and likely to be fatigued is Ilya Ivashka, who, like Kyrgios, played doubles on Monday in DC after finishing his Atlanta campaign at the weekend (Saturday).

Ivashka played 12 sets in the heat of Atlanta (every match went to a decider) and looked shattered by the end of his semi final loss to Alex De Minaur, so this might be a good opportunity for Seb Korda to get his season back underway.

Korda was struggling with shin problems before and during the grass swing, so he's only played one match in the last couple of months and that was last week in Atlanta when he lost from a set up against Taro Daniel.

I'm on Korda outright this week, so I won't get involved today, but the American should have far more energy in reserve than Ivashka here.

Edmund in with a chance against rusty Evans

Other possibilities on Tuesday include taking Kyle Edmund to win the opening set against Dan Evans, with Edmund having already played a match here (yesterday when he beat Uchiyama) and Evans having not played since June 28.

The counter argument to that is that Edmund may well be tired today after playing his first singles match at main level for getting on for two years (he played three times last week in Winnipeg).

Koepfer can continue fine record against big servers

So, perhaps it's more appealing to take a chance on Dominik Koepfer to cause problems for Karen Khachanov, who's coming here from the clay of Hamburg.

Koepfer has a good record against big servers and his lefty game should get its rewards against the weaker backhand side of Khachanov.

Koepfer has struggled with injuries this season, but he's on the comeback trail now and keen to get his ranking back up to where it should be.

He's won six of his last seven matches against the big servers in my database, with the one loss coming at the start of this season when he wasn't fit.

The wins came against Reilly Opelka (three times), Milos Raonic, Maxime Cressy and Feli Lopez and he's also 2-0 win/loss against Ivo Karlovic, so he won't be fazed by Khachanov's game.

Again, laying the 2-0 to Khachanov at 2.01/1 for a point looks the play in that match.