ATP Vienna Tips: Novak can rise to the occasion against Tsitsipas

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Novak has often been inspired playing on the bigger stages

"The flashy Novak often plays above his ranking in this event and in the past he's taken sets off Gael Monfils, Kevin Anderson and Kyle Edmund as a biggish underdog, with two of those matches ending in final set tie breaks."

Round one of the Erste Bank Open and the Swiss Indoors completes on Wednesday and after a 4-1 winner on Tuesday, Sean Calvert has two more picks for day three...

  • Big names start their campaigns in Vienna and Basel
  • Sinner and Tsitsipas may both be tested
  • Sean Calvert is backing both to win 2-1


We got a little lucky on Tuesday when our 5.04/1 shot of Dominic Stricker winning the opening set 7-6 against Maxime Cressy came in via the scenic route, but the bet that was perhaps better value lost.

Denis Shapovalov scored only nine more points than Jurij Rodionov, but won in straight sets, which was annoying, but it was a profit on the day.

The top two seeds are in action in Vienna on Wednesday and after the first couple of days we're still awaiting an underdog winner at the Erste Bank Open (12-0 win/loss for the favourites).

Jannik Sinner has plenty of motivation to go well in the next couple of weeks, with the lure of the Tour Finals in his homeland of Italy in mind, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he were to be tested by Cristian Garin.

Sinner has a history of starting slowly after breaks and more of the same is quite possible against Garin in what will be a first career meeting.

After winning Umag, Sinner had a couple of weeks off, came back in Canada and played poorly, dropping the opening set to Adrian Mannarino and then losing heavily to Pablo Carreno Busta.

Prior to that he had a month off after the French and then lost his next match to Tommy Paul and before that he had three weeks off after Miami and just about beat Borna Coric in three sets, with Coric at that stage ranked 198 and very early in his own comeback from injury.

Going back further, Sinner had two weeks off between Indian Wells and Miami and should have been beaten by Emil Ruusuvuori in his Miami opener, with the Finn choking badly and allowing Sinner to nick it in a final set tie break.

So, there are several recent examples of Sinner being a slow starter and this time he's had three weeks off after rolling his ankle in Sofia, so it's possible that Sinner will have to battle a bit to beat Garin.

Sinner should win it in the end, but Garin hasn't given up on the season, with a very good win over Jason Kubler followed by a tight tie break opening set versus the in-form Holger Rune in Stockholm last week.

The over 21.5 games appeals here, but at this stage of the season I need little encouragement to take the bigger-priced option, which in this case is the 2-1 to Sinner at a tasty 5.04/1.

Flashy Novak can take a set off Tsitsipas

Another heavy odds-on shot that could be made to work hard is Stockholm runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas, who faces Austrian wild card Dennis Novak.

The flashy Novak often plays above his ranking in this event and in the past he's taken sets off Gael Monfils, Kevin Anderson and Kyle Edmund as a biggish underdog, with two of those matches ending in final set tie breaks.

He's been in decent form lately, too, with a couple of Challenger finals in the last few months on the clay, which is the surface he plays most of his tennis on, but he loves a stage and he'll relish this opportunity to take on a top-10 player.

Tsitsipas has been in reasonable form, but he hasn't been at his best this season, with another defeat as favourite in a final only three days ago in Stockholm and it's a fast turnaround with little time to recover from another disappointing result in a title match.

Similarly to the Sinner match there are a few options to side with Novak here and the big-priced one is the 2-1 to Tsitsipas at around 5.04/1.

FAA could be tested by motivated Huesler in Basel

Over at the Swiss Indoors Basel, if Jenson Brooksby has the legs after a long season his play style could easily coax a ton of errors out of Ugo Humbert, but the American has looked tired lately.

I also wonder what Felix Auger-Aliassime has left in his legs after a lot of tennis lately and back-to-back titles.

He faces a tricky round one clash with Sofia champion, Marc-Andrea Huesler, who should be motivated playing at home and his awkward lefty, net-rushing style might take FAA a while to get on top of.

The 4.03/1 about a set one tie break is worthy of consideration there, with Felix often a slow starter in tournaments and likely to be fatigued as well.

But two half point bets is all I'll take on Wednesday in Vienna.

Recommended bets

Back Tsitsipas to win 2-1 @ 5.04/1
Back Sinner to win 2-1 @ 5.04/1

Sean Calvert's Betting.Betfair P&L 2022

Staked: 112.91 points
Returned: 125.32 points
Profit: 12.41 points

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