ATP Tour Finals: Sinner beats Djokovic but Zverev may be value at 12/1

Max Liu
15 November 2023
3:00 min read

Djokovic is the ATP Tour finals favourite on the Betfair Exchange

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As the ATP Tour Finals reaches its halfway point in Turin it is time to ask if it is worth taking on Novak Djokovic in the outright winner betting and if so who should you back?

Djokovic still fav after loss to Sinner
Medvedv and Zverez aim to reclaim the title
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Novak Djokovic is the 2.942/1 favourite on the Betfair Exchange to win the ATP Tour Finals after he was defeated by Jannik Sinner in the group stage.

Buoyed by the support of the home crowd the Italian Sinner won a third-set tie-break to secure the match 7-5 6-7 (5-7) 7-6 (7-2) in three hours and nine minutes.

Sinner is now 3.55/2 to build on the win and take the title as the seven day tournament reaches its halfway point. Prior to beating Djokovic, Sinner overcame Stefanos Tsitsipas in his first match.

The Exchange market indicates that playing in his own country can help Sinner reach Sunday's final where he could play Djokovic again.

Despite his defeat Djokovic is still in the tournament due its format which sees the eight players divided into two groups where they play three matches each.

The top two in each group go through to the semi-finals and compete for a place in the final.

Sinner shows Djokovic is beatable

Djokovic will be aiming to beat Polish ninth seed Hubert Hurkacz tomorrow in his next group match to reach the semi finals. Hurkacz has joined the tournament as replacement for Tsitsipas who had to withdraw through injury.

Djokovic's defeat to Sinner was the first time he has lost since the Wimbledon men's final against Carlos Alcaraz in July.

If Djokovic dusts himself down and moves on against Hurkacz he will be difficult to stop as he bids to retain the title he won here a year ago.

But Sinner, who will play Holger Rune is his final group match on Thursday, has shown that the Serb is beatable.

Medvedev 5/1 as Alcaraz struggles

Daniil Medvedev 5.85/1 comes next in the outright betting. The Russian opened up with a straight sets win over Andrey Rublev in Turin. Medvedev is the favourite to win his match against 2021 champion Alexander Zverez on Wednesday.

Daniil Medvedev Indian Wells.jpg

But Zverev, who is 13.5 to add a third ATP Tour Finals title (he also won it in 2018), comes into the match on the back of coming from a set down to beat Alcaraz.

It was the 20-year-old Spaniard's third successive defeat and he is 10.519/2 in the outright betting as a result of his poor form.

Two-time champ is generous price at over 12/1

If we are looking for a player to back in Turin then Zverez - a two time winner and crucially one who has won the tournament at this venue - is an interesting option at around 12/113.00

Alexander Zverev Munich 2022.jpg

He showed resilience in his win over Alcaraz and, as long as the three setter has not left him tired, his odds look generous.

Sinner's two wins from two, the fact that he has beaten Djokovic and will have the partisan crowd on his side, means that he is the man with the momentum. But has he peaked too soon? Hopefully not but 3.55/2 is still a slender price.

But at the prices on the Betfair Exchange a bet on Zverez is favoured.

Back Zverez to win ATP Tour Finals @ around 12/113.00

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