ATP Stuttgart Tips: Stricker can test Tsitsipas' grass skills

We got the expected washout in Rosmalen on Wednesday, while Stuttgart's play was halted early, too, so there are plenty of matches to get through at the Boss Open and Libema Open on Thursday.

The rain is set to ease today for the rest of the week apart from the odd shower, so we should see a fair amount tennis on day four.

After landing us a nice winner on Tuesday, Dominic Stephan Stricker is back in action on Thursday in another match where I feel there could be more tie breaks.

The qualifier faces Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has failed to show any aptitude for grass so far in his career, although the longer break for him this year between the end of the French Open and start of the grass season may help him.

Tsitsipas is just 8-8 win/loss on grass so far in his career and his last victory was in a final set tie break against Jeremy Chardy at Queen's in 2019.

The Greek's preference for time on his backhand side is a luxury he doesn't often get on a grass court and on the last three occasions he's felt the grass under his feet he's been beaten as favourite: by Frances Tiafoe at 1.111/9 and Thomas Fabbiano at 1.141/7 at Wimbledon and by Felix Auger-Aliassime at 1.635/8 at Queen's.

So far on grass, Tsitsipas has only managed to break serve 14% of the time, while holding his own deal 86% of the time, so the challenge of facing a strong-serving leftie on grass looks a tough one for Tsitsipas to me.

He's only ever faced one leftie on grass in his career and that was back in 2018 when John-Patrick Smith took the opening set off Tsitsipas in Rosmalen and Stricker will be testing out a backhand side of Tsitsipas that does break down when rushed.

After that triple tie break match against Maxime Cressy, Stricker's grass stats are now even more serve-oriented.

In his four grass matches at main level, he's played 0.90 tie breaks per set, holding serve 91% of the time and breaking serve 8% of the time and in all of his grass matches he's played 0.63 tie breaks per set, holding 86% of the time and breaking 16% of the time.

I'm tempted by the over 1.5 tie breaks again here at 7.513/2 but Stricker +3.5 games at 1.9110/11 looks the wager.

Hurkacz with a tough opener against Fucsovics

The second match where I feel there's value in taking on the favourite is the clash between Hubert Hurkacz and Marton Fucsovics.

I was happy to oppose Fucsovics in his round one match against the qualifier Jurij Rodionov given that the latter had played three matches on grass prior to that one, but it was a fine start to the grass swing from Fucsovics.

The Hungarian should have won it 2-0, but was poor on converting his break chances (only 2 of 15 taken), and if he stays at that sort of level (and gets better on break point chances) he should be a tough first opponent for Hurkacz.

The Pole had done little on grass prior to making the Wimbledon semi final last year, coming into that SW19 campaign 6-8 win/loss on the surface.

It might be the case that the slower, higher bouncing grass at the All England Club (particularly higher bouncing in week two) suits Hurkacz better than the slick, lower bouncing conditions at other grass events, such as Stuttgart.

He lost 7-6, 7-6 (of course) to Stricker here 12 months ago in round one and his career stats aren't great on grass: 88% holds (helped by a high 69% of break points against him saved) and just 14% breaks.

Indeed, if we compare the all-time main level grass data of Hurkacz and Fucsovics there isn't much to choose between them overall.

Hurkacz's combined service points won/return points won total is 102 (Fucsovics 100) and the Pole's much better break point save percentage of 69% (Fucsovics just 56%) has allowed him to hold serve more often (88% compared to 79% for Fucsovics).

Fucsovics has created more break chances on this surface (0.55 per game) than Hurkacz (0.42%), but both men have only taken around a third of those opportunities.

Fucsovics has also won both of the previous career meetings between these two and while both were some time ago now (2018 on hard in Cincy and indoors the same year in Budapest) at least Fucsovics won't fear Hurkacz.

Murray with a slight edge over Bublik

Andy Murray fans can watch their man on his favourite surface on Thursday and he faces a tricky test against the wildly inconsistent Alexander Bublik.

Murray lost to Bublik at Indian Wells a few months ago after beating the same opponent a month prior to that indoors in Rotterdam and the Scot will need to improve his break point conversion rate versus Bublik if he wants to progress.

In those two matches they've played this year, Murray has taken only 13% of his break point chances (Bublik not hugely better at 22%) and the pair have each held serve 91% of the time as a consequence of those poor conversion rates.

Murray has the edge in those two meetings in terms of combined service points won/return points won and looks correctly priced as slight favourite.

Ivashka a solid favourite against Ruusuvuori

Moving on to Rosmalen now and they're getting a bit behind with their matches now, with round one still to be completed after the washout on Wednesday.

The forecast looks okay for the rest of the week though, so it shouldn't be a problem. They have plenty of courts they can use at this venue to catch up if needs be.

And the one I like today is Ilya Ivashka at around 1.748/11 to beat Emil Ruusuvuori.

Ivashka has shown a real liking for grass lately, winning 10 of his last 13 matches, with two of the three losses coming against Federer and Berrettini (the other one was against Kwon in the Eastbourne quarter finals last year when I had a 100-1 ticket on Ivashka each-way).

Ivashka has shown a real liking for grass lately, winning 10 of his last 13 matches, with two of the three losses coming against Federer and Berrettini

He tends to be more disciplined from the back of the court and makes fewer mistakes than Ruusuvuori, who blows hot and cold, and has only held serve 54% of the time in his four career meetings against Ivashka (3-1 to Ivashka).

One of those was on clay, but on indoor hard against Ivashka he's held serve 67% of the time and on outdoor hard 33% of the time, so he's got a bit to find in the match-up.

And if we take Ivashka's last 10 main level grass matches, he's produced some fine numbers: 85% holds of serve/20% breaks of serve (105 total) and a 104 combined service points won/return points won total.

Ruusuvuori is a work in progress on grass and is 3-4 win/loss at all levels on the surface so far, so 1.748/11 seems fair enough about Ivashka here.

So, a busy day in store on Thursday after the rain delays and I'm taking three half point win bets on Thursday: Ivashka to win, Stricker +3.5 games, and Fucsovics to win a set.