ATP Newport Tips: Rejuvenated Kubler value in all-Aussie clash with Thompson

Sean Calvert
11 July 2022

Kubler was impressive at Wimbledon 2022

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The ATP Tour returns in week 28 with two ATP 250 tournaments in Bastad and Newport and Sean Calvert is back to find the value on day one...

"I just feel that when fit Kubler's a better player than Thompson as is highlighted by his better main level grass numbers this season..."

We're back on the ATP Tour beat this week after the grass court major concluded on Sunday with a nice 3.7511/4 winner and while the grass action continues in Newport, USA, the clay dogs are back on the red dirt in Bastad, Sweden.

And it's Bastad that's provided some interesting numbers over the years, both in terms of service holds, tie breaks and underdog winners.

They play here next to the beach in often windy conditions and it's usually really slow in Bastad, with only 19% of its matches on average featuring a tie break in the last eight editions (only two tie break matches in the entire tournament in 2021).

Service holds are low at 73% in the last five editions and underdog winners are high at 40% on average in the last eight editions, making it the sixth-best tournament of the year in that regard.

That said, those underdogs are usually only slight odds-against, because you'd only have made a profit of £20 if you'd backed every underdog in Bastad's main draw in the last six editions to a £10 stake.

In Newport, the grass is quite slick and low-bouncing, but that hasn't stopped John Isner winning the title four times and it's hold of serve average is the same as Wimbledon's lately at 81%.

An average of 41% of its matches have featured a tie break in the last eight editions and 34% of the betting underdogs have won in those eight years.

The profit and loss of the event if you'd backed every underdog in the last six editions is pretty much the same as Bastad at £26.70 profit.

While it's hot and sunny here in the UK, the weather in Bastad this week is considerably less summer-like, with a high of 21C expected this week and rain/showers towards the end of the week.

Wawrinka fancied but value gone

Stan Wawrinka Queens 2022.jpg

Monday's play features the conclusion of qualifying and three main draw matches of which Stan Wawrinka looks the most attractively priced of the underdogs.

Stan has taken a wild card into Bastad this week and unlike a few players in this draw he'll be looking for matches this week rather than having one eye on the following week.

Stan's opponent Pablo Carreno Busta could well be one of those players looking ahead, given that he's the defending champion in Hamburg next week and has a record of 9-3 win/loss there and just 3-4 in Bastad.

PCB is also under a bit of an injury cloud having retired at Wimbledon due to a right leg injury and I wonder how fit he is this week?

Fitness is also an ongoing concern with 37-year-old Wawrinka, but he could well the more motivated of the pair here, with the Swiss wanting to make good use of his wild card by getting matches.

He too may have one eye on next week, as he's playing at home in Gstaad, but matches are key for Wawrinka in his latest comeback and he won't fear PCB in any way, having beaten the Spaniard easily each time they met in the past.

Things are very different now, five years on from those matches, but Wawrinka retains enough ability to win a set for me in this match.

The line has moved significantly overnight though from an opening price of 1.351/3 on PCB to 1.51/2 now, so the value has gone for me on Wawrinka.

Lorenzo Musetti is another possible underdog option, but his record against Laslo Djere on clay is really poor at 0-3 (one was an unlucky injury retirement) and the stats are heavily in favour of Djere in those matches.

Djere has simply been too solid for Musetti on the clay so far and while Musetti is very much capable of winning this match I'm not sure the price is too appealing given the stats of the match-up.

Daniel Altmaier lost to one Ymer brother at Wimbledon (Mikael) and now plays the other one (Elias) in his next match.

Altmaier has been playing Bundesliga on the clay in recent days, so he should be attuned back to the red dirt and he seems the likely winner against the durable but limited Ymer.

Indeed, Ymer was playing at altitude in Salzburg last week so perhaps he's the one that may need a bit of time to adjust back to playing at sea level on clay.

Ymer has done reasonably well lately with his wild cards into this tournament, but he's a little way behind Altmaier on the main level clay stats, so I think I'd want a bigger price before backing Ymer here.

Kubler can win all-Australian clash with Thompson

The one I like over in Newport today is Jason Kubler as underdog against Jordan Thompson, whose best work tends to come at Challenger level.

And it was the case again this summer when Thompson won Surbiton and made the final in Nottingham, but then lost to clay courter Sebastian Baez in Majorca and didn't land a blow against Stefanos Tsitsipas at Wimbledon.

Now he faces the rejuvenated Kubler, whose run to the second week of Wimbledon as a qualifier showed what he could have done in his career had his body allowed him to.

The former number one junior's career has been blighted by a knee problem that's seen him have six surgeries, but after that Wimbledon success he can now afford to have a physio with him full-time.

That can only be a real boost for Kubler and I just feel that when fit he's a better player than Thompson as is highlighted by his better main level grass numbers this season and a line through Dan Evans.

It's not a great way to compare, but Kubler's dominant win over a decent grass courter in Evans at the Brit's home slam shows what he can do, while Thompson was beaten in straight sets by Evans a few weeks prior.

That doesn't mean much when it comes to this match-up today, but the fact that he held serve 85% of the time against Evans, Novak, Fritz and Sock in the Wimbledon main draw is impressive and I'm happy to take him as underdog today.

The only other Newport underdog on Monday that might be interesting is Peter Gojowczyk, whose very flat hitting can be really effective on a newly played on grass court, but he rarely seems to be fit these days.

If he is fit I could see him doing something against Ugo Humbert, whose confidence levels are brittle at the best of times, but we've seen nothing from Gojowczyk for such a long time that it's not worth a bet.

So, I'll take a point on Kubler as my bet on Monday.