ATP Newport Tips: Purcell can keep things close against Mannarino

Sean Calvert
12 July 2022

Mannarino looks a short price against Purcell in Newport

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The round one matches in this week's ATP World Tour events in Bastad and Newport conclude on Tuesday and Sean Calvert is back with two more value plays...

"The stats suggest that Purcell is in there with a great chance - he just needs to do better on the big points."

We got off to a nice start on Monday with Jason Kubler providing a stress-free straight sets win over Jordan Thompson as underdog in Newport.

Tuesday's play at the Nordea Open and the Infosys Halle of Fame Open features more round one action, with nine matches scheduled in Bastad and eight in Newport.

The match that interests me on Tuesday in Newport is the clash between the newly-crowned Wimbledon doubles champion, Max Purcell and grass stalwart Adrian Mannarino.

This could go one of two ways for Purcell: either he carries the momentum forward from that Wimbledon triumph to this final week of the grass season in singles or he's too tired to give his best effort.

Given how close the match was when these two met in singles at Wimbledon a week or so ago I'm prepared to chance the former of those outcomes and back Purcell.

The Australian showed how dangerous he can be on grass last summer when making the semi finals of Eastbourne as a lucky loser, beating Gael Monfils en route after losing to Ilya Ivashka in qualies.

This grass swing he's beaten the likes of Sam Querrey and Pierre Hugues-Herbert before losing narrowly to Mannarino in five sets in a match that Purcell could easily have won.

Purcell scored only nine fewer points than Mannarino over five sets and took only three of a huge 25 break point chances, which in the end proved to be his downfall.

Mannarino's grass campaign this year wasn't his best, with a semi final in Rosmalen the highlight, and if we take the recent main level grass court stats that we have for this pair, there's not much in it.

Purcell has played only six matches (3-3 win/loss) in which his combined service points won/return points won total is 99 and Mannarino in his last 10 at main level is 98, so slight advantage there to Purcell.

If we take the recent main level grass court stats that we have for this pair, there's not much in it

The issue for Purcell has been on the big points: he's saved just 50% of the break points against him, which is very low on grass, and taken only 32% of the 0.59 break chances per game he's created.

To create 0.59 break chances per game on grass is pretty good and Mannarino, for example, has created 0.42 per game.

So, the stats suggest that Purcell is in there with a great chance - he just needs to do better on the big points.

Mannarino hasn't got a particularly good record in Newport (7-7 win/loss and never past the quarter finals) so laying Mannarino to win 2-0 at around 2.01/1 looks the bet here.

Elsewhere in Newport, I'm slightly favouring Quentin Halys over Alexei Popyrin, with the latter the narrow favourite.

Halys has only played three main level matches on grass, but he's done well in them, holding serve 91% of the time against Nikoloz Basilashvili, Benoit Paire and Emil Ruusuvuori.

Popyrin has really struggled at main level on grass lately and looks like he just doesn't enjoy the surface, losing six of his last seven main level matches on the green stuff.

Andy Murray has generally had too much game for Sam Querrey over the years, winning eight of their 10 matches (and Murray was on one leg for much of one of the two that Querrey won).

That said, Murray was 9-0 versus John Isner and had held serve 99% of the time against Isner until Wimbledon when the big American took the veteran Scot down in four sets, so I wouldn't be backing Murray at 1.331/3 here.

It's hard to get a level on Querrey these days, as he only tends to show up for grass court events, but he was barely able to do that this summer, with a straight sets defeat to Ricardas Berankis at Wimbledon the low points of a poor summer.

Querrey has only beaten 256-ranked Robin Haase and clay courter Diego Schwartzman so far at main level on grass this summer, so it's hard to fancy him for the upset here, although it wouldn't be a huge shock if he did win.

Cerundolo short against Sousa in Bastad

In Bastad, the only one of the underdogs that looks like they could be value is qualifier Pedro Sousa against Francisco Cerundolo.

I've taken a punt on Cerundolo outright at a very big price this week, but that was before Bastad qualies had completed and while I expect Cerundolo to win, I wouldn't have him as short as 1.330/100 to beat Sousa.

Cerundolo has been playing Bundesliga on the clay since Wimbledon, so he's not going straight from grass to clay, but conditions in Bastad are very slow and windy and it may take some time for this shot-maker to find his range in the wind.

I watched Sousa beat Jaume Munar in qualies on Monday and he was rarely in trouble after going an early break down and he beat Munar at a price of around 7.613/2 on the Exchange.

conditions in Bastad are very slow and windy and it may take some time for this shot-maker to find his range in the wind

Sousa also beat Facundo Bagnis (who beat Dominic Thiem last week in Salzburg on his way to the semis there) in straight sets in qualies, so that's strong form from Sousa coming through qualies.

Injuries have prevented Sousa from really showing his best the last couple of years, but I was only as recently as 2020 that he made a final on the Golden Swing, so this is a classy clay operator when fit.

He's barely been fit in recent times, but he looks good now and if we compare the stats of both men in their last 10 main level matches on clay there isn't too much in it.

Sousa's combined service points won/return points won total is 98, while Cerundolo's is 101, so the Argentine is hardly miles ahead, plus we haven't seen the best of Sousa for some time because of injury.

So, with two matches under his belt in Bastad already I'm happy to take Sousa to win a set against Cerundolo and like the Mannarino match, the best value here is to lay the 2-0 to Cerundolo at around 1.875/6 - both plays are one point each.