ATP Newport Tips: Can Gojowczyk take down another big server in Isner?

Sean Calvert
13 July 2022

Peter Gojowczyk has a great record against big servers

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Round two of the Nordea Open and the Infosys Hall of Fame Open are the order of the day on the ATP Tour on Wednesday and Sean Calvert has three plays to consider...

"Gojowczyk's record versus big servers is incredible, with a 1-0 win/loss mark against Isner and an overall record of 11-1 at main level versus the ones in my database..."

It was one win and one loss on Tuesday for a slight profit when Max Purcell won the first set against Adrian Mannarino after Pedro Sousa had produced a peculiarly feeble display against Francisco Cerundolo.

We're into round two in Bastad and Newport and over the years this round has proven to be a decent one for underdog backers at the Nordea Open, where 36% of the betting underdogs have won on average in the last eight editions.

Strangely, it's actually the later rounds in Bastad that have been the more profitable for underdog backers, with 53% of them winning on average in the quarters, semis and final in the last eight editions.

Round two in Newport has been decent for value-seekers, too, with 38% of the underdogs winning in this round in the last eight editions of the Hall of Fame Open.

And the one I like to perhaps deliver a nice profit on Wednesday in Newport is a man that I mentioned as a possible underdog winner on Monday - Peter Gojowczyk.

I said on Monday that Gojowczyk was a potential winner against Ugo Humbert and the streaky German won in straight sets at a very big price. Now he takes on John Isner.

This is the perfect situation for Gojowczyk, who came to life last summer, too, making the semis here in Newport, then going on to make the last-16 at the US Open (losing to Carlos Alcaraz in a fifth set).

This is a player who's made it his business to beat big servers for many years now

His record versus big servers is incredible, with a 1-0 win/loss mark against Isner and an overall record of 11-1 at main level versus the ones in my database, the full details of which are:

Vs Isner: 1-0
Vs Querrey: 2-0
Vs Raonic: 2-1
Vs Karlovic: 3-0
Vs Opelka: 2-0
Vs Berrettini: 1-0

He also beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga twice (2-1 head-to-head, with one loss coming on clay), so this is a player who's made it his business to beat big servers for many years now.

In those 12 matches he's held serve 94% of the time, despite averaging just 54% of first serves in (a regular issue that Gojowczyk has) and won an impressive 71% of the tie breaks.

Given also that Isner was struggling with what appeared to be a knee injury at Wimbledon last time out, I'm happy to take a point on Gojowczyk winning the match at 5.04/1 and also laying Isner 2-0 at 1.748/11.

Jason Kubler Wimbledon 2022.jpg

Elsewhere in Newport, I wonder about Felix Auger-Aliassime and whether we'll see another of his regular slow starts to tournaments?

We enjoyed a nice winner with Jason Kubler the other day at odds-against and with Kubler in prime form right now I can't see this being an easy opening match for FAA by any means.

Of FAA's 15 opening round matches at main level this season, he's only won the first set comfortably (i.e. not a tie break) five times.

He's lost set one seven times in those 15 matches and won set one on a tie break three times, so this is not a player who hits the ground running and now he's had to wait three weeks between matches after his early loss at Wimbledon.

Of FAA's 15 opening round matches at main level this season, he's only won the first set comfortably (i.e. not a tie break) five times

Kubler, on the other hand, continues to impress and he's now 4-1 at main level on grass this summer, with 87% holds of serve and 24% breaks of serve for a 111 total and his combined service points won/return points won total is 103.

It's only a small snapshot of his career of course, but it shows what he can do when he's fit and has confidence in his body.

For the record, Auger-Aliassime's stats in his seven main level grass matches this season show 94% holds/12% breaks for a 106 total and his combined service points won/return points won total is also 103.

So, if we're assuming that both men play to the level they've been playing so far this grass swing, there's value on Kubler again on Wednesday.

Several underdog possibilities in Bastad

Over in Bastad, I'm hoping for a win for Francsico Cerundolo over the top seed Casper Ruud and why not if Ruud has the same issue changing surfaces from grass to clay as he did earlier on in the year from hard to clay?

Ruud was awful in the first few clay events he played after making the Miami final on hard and if he's not on his game, Cerundolo may punish him, although I wasn't particularly impressed with Cerundolo on Tuesday.

That match against Pedro Sousa was more about how poor Sousa was on the day, with the Portuguese player showing no appetite for a battle whatsoever.

Definite chance for Cerundolo on a good day for him and a below par one from Ruud, but I prefer the betting options in Newport.

Diego Schwartzman Buenos Aires 2022.jpg

Other possibilities on Wednesday in Bastad include Albert Ramos (versus Pablo Carreno Busta) and Elias Ymer (versus Diego Schwartzman), with the underdogs quite possibly being more committed than the favourites in those two matches.

Schwartzman has a really poor record lately on European clay in 250s and 500s, while Carreno Busta may well be more interested in defending next week in Hamburg.

But my bets for Wednesday are: one point on Gojowczyk to beat Isner at 5.04/1, a one point lay of Isner to beat Gojowczyk 2-0 at 1.748/11 and one point on Kubler to win set one against Auger-Aliassime at 3.185/40.