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ATP Majorca Tips: Ivashka capable of upsetting Tsitsipas

Sean Calvert
22 June 2022

Ivashka has been playing well on the grass and is fancied to shock Tsitsipas

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Round two of the Mallorca Championships completes on Wednesday and Sean Calvert is in attendance to preview the action...

"If we compare the data from the few grass matches that Ivashka and Tsitsipas have played in 2022 we find that it's Ivashka that's better on both combined service points won/return points won and hold/break totals."

The big names will make an appearance at the Mallorca Country Club on Wednesday, with Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov all starting their campaigns.

Medvedev was practicing on Monday and Tsitsipas played doubles on Tuesday, so they should be match-ready for today's round two matches.

Medvedev faces fellow Russian player Aslan Karatsev (who also played doubles on Monday) and this will be the fourth time that this pair have met and Karatsev has won all three of their previous meetings.

Two of those matches were way back in 2014 and 2016, while the other was played on clay in Rome last season and Karatsev won quite comfortably.

So, Karatsev won't have any fear of facing Medvedev and he's had one singles match and one doubles match already in these fairly unique conditions in Majorca, while Medvedev is coming in cold and after a heavy defeat in the Halle final.

And it's been a bit of a peculiar grass swing for Medvedev so far because despite making two finals he hasn't appeared to be playing his best tennis in many of the matches that he's won.

Plenty have been a real struggle for Medvedev and his combined service points won/return points won total is only 102, which is okay, but hardly befitting of a world number one.

It's been a bit of a peculiar grass swing for Medvedev so far because despite making two finals he hasn't appeared to be playing his best tennis...

You never know what you're going to get from the ultra-aggressive Karatsev, but he'll be delighted to have come from a set down to beat the tricky Jaume Munar in round one and I like the price on him today.

I think that the idea of taking Karatsev to win set one at a tasty price of 3.7511/4 might be the best value bet in that match.

Bellier style could cause problems for Carreno Busta

Antoine Bellier's net-rushing tactics saw him win his first main draw match when he beat grass-hating Federico Delbonis on Monday.

I doubt he'll be so successful against Pablo Carreno Busta on Wednesday, but it's not the ideal style of opponent for PCB to face in his opening match of the tournament.

I'm slightly tempted with the over 21.5 games in this one or the over games in set one, while PCB tries to work out how to approach the match.

Bonzi and Ivashka in with underdog chances

The two outsiders that I backed outright this week, Ilya Ivashka and Benjamin Bonzi both have realistic chances of causing upsets when they face Stefanos Tsitsipas and Denis Shapovalov respectively.

Ivashka took a set off Tsitsipas in a rain-interrupted match on clay in Barcelona recently and this should be a good workout for the Greek on his least effective surface.

I'd be surprised (and disappointed) if Tsitsipas were to win this one in straight sets, given his weak record on grass (10-10 win/loss) and break of serve stat of just 13% breaks in his main level grass career so far.

If we compare the data from the few grass matches that Ivashka and Tsitsipas have played in 2022 we find that it's Ivashka that's better on both combined service points won/return points won (103 compared to 98) and hold/break totals (111 compared to 96).

And Ivashka has faced Medvedev twice this grass swing, so there are possibilities for Ivashka here, with the betting value lying with the underdog in these conditions.

He's had one match to get used to the Majorcan grassand I'll take half a point on Ivashka at 2.9015/8 in this one.

Benjamin Bonzi Monte Carlo 2022.jpg

Bonzi has started his grass career well and he was close to beating Tsitsipas in Halle last week, so I expect him to be a tough opponent for Denis Shapovalov, who's struggling at the moment and will need his best tennis to win, I feel.

The Canadian is more than capable of producing it, but we haven't seen it for some time and if you are backing Shapo on Wednesday the 2-1 set betting score appeals rather more than the 1.594/7 about him winning by any score.

Rarely does Shapo win in straight sets these days, with his long swings not really suitable to a grass court that is very bouncy and (according to Bonzi) "quicker than in Germany".

Griekspoor no cert to beat Molcan

Finally, I wouldn't be backing Tallon Griekspoor as favourite against Alex Molcan, who has Marian Vajda with him this week in Mallorca.

I talked about Griekspoor's poor return game on grass ahead of a match he was fortunate to win in straight sets against Feli Lopez and now his stats are even worse.

He's broken serve only 7% of the time in his seven career main level grass matches and when he faced Molcan last week in Halle the first set went to a long tie break.

Molcan was impressive in beating Miomir Kecmanovic in round one and if he can nick an early break against Griekspoor he could very well turn last week's Halle result around.

You'd think that conditions would favour Griekspoor, with all of Molcan's best results coming on clay, but I expect Molcan to at least make this very close if he stays at the same level that he showed on Sunday.

Determined Baez likely to frustrate Altmaier

I said the other day that I wouldn't be surprised if Sebastian Baez made it tough for Jordan Thompson and Baez beat the Aussie in straight sets and now he has a great chance of progressing even further.

He faces Daniel Altmaier, who has the bigger weapons, but may well find Baez too tough to penetrate and I suspect the German will have to play one ball too many on enough occasions for the errors to rack up.

Nick Kyrgios Stuttgart 2022.jpg

Nick Kyrios was close to losing as a 1.141/7 chance on Tuesday to Laslo Djere and he'll face a similarly durable opponent in Roberto Bautista Agut in the late match on Wednesday.

RBA has beaten NK pretty easily the last couple of times that they've met (although they were when Kyrgios was barely playing) and the Aussie will need a better level than he found on Tuesday if he's to win this one.

If you're only breaking serve 12-13% of the time, which Kyrgios does on grass, you're relying a lot on tie breaks

Once again, Kyrgios's lack of ability to break serve came into play against Djere and if you're only breaking serve 12-13% of the time, which Kyrgios does on grass, you're relying a lot on tie breaks.

I rarely relish the prospect of betting in a Kyrgios match if I can avoid it, such is his tendency for drama, but if I were forced to have a bet here I'd probably take RBA as underdog or the over games.

Marcos Giron Halle 2022.jpg

Finally, the man who (eventually) came up trumps for us yesterday, Marcos Giron, faces Mackenzie McDonald in a clash of two very similar styles.

The last time they met was at the Cincy Masters (played in New York) back in 2020 on outdoor hard and Giron edged it in two tight, long sets, but this time it's McDonald that has the slight advantage for me.

McDonald's grass court stats are slightly better than those of Giron, plus the former has had a couple of days off after his round one match, while Giron is pitched back in less than a day after that tough battle against Botic van de Zandschulp (2h 40m).

So, Wednesday looks a day when several of the underdogs should have their opportunities and I'll take half a point on Karatsev to win the opener against Medvedev and Ivashka to beat Tsitsipas for half a point.