ATP Majorca Tips: Van de Zandschulp looks short to beat capable Giron

Sean Calvert
21 June 2022

Van de Zandschulp looks short in price against Giron

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Round one completes and round two begins at the Mallorca Championship on Wednesday and our man there, Sean Calvert, has one bet to consider on day three...

"Whether or not Van de Zandschulp will continue that form in a pre-major week is guesswork, but Giron beat VDZ on a slow, high bouncing hard court at Indian Wells last October as slight favourite, so it may be the case that VDZ is a bit short in price today."

We didn't get any luck at all with Feli Lopez against Tallon Griekspoor on Tuesday in Majorca, with the veteran Spaniard playing two poor tie breaks to lose 6-7, 6-7 in a match that featured the expected few breaks of serve (zero, in fact).

That was a case of right idea, wrong result and Wednesday's play in Majorca looks equally tricky to find value in.

The first thing you notice about the courts in Majorca is how bouncy they are, with the Spanish grass appearing to be much springier than the low-bouncing grass courts of England.

That shouldn't present a problem to Nick Kyrgios (who was practicing on Tuesday with Jordan Thompson) against Laslo Djere, whose record on grass is 2-8 win/loss in completed matches.

It's difficult to see any other outcome than a Kyrgios win there unless the combustible Aussie has one of his regular meltdowns.

That one is a match between a very good grass courter versus pretty much an out-and-out clay dog and the same could be said of Jordan Thompson vs Sebastian Baez.

Baez has played three matches on grass in his career: two at Wimbledon Juniors in 2017 and 2018 and one at Wimbledon qualies last year.

He's lost all three, so his chances don't seem great against Thompson, who has a decent record on grass (17-18 win/loss in his main level career and a combined service points won/return points won total of 100.

That should be enough to beat Baez, but the Argentine is a determined character and won't lie down here.

He played doubles with Joao Sousa on Tuesday, so he's had a feel for this Majorcan grass, and perhaps he can take a set off Thompson on Wednesday.

Marcos Giron Halle 2022.jpg

But perhaps a more likely underdog set winner is Marcos Giron against Botic van de Zandschulp.

Giron's been competitive in the two matches he's played on grass in 2022, taking a set off Felix Auger-Aliassime last week in Halle and wasting match points against Jan-Lennard Struff in Stuttgart.

Giron faces Queen's Club quarter finalist van de Zandschulp, who has the clear advantage when it comes to firepower off the serve, but he didn't seem comfortable on grass at all until last week.

Whether or not he'll continue that form in a pre-major week is guesswork, but Giron beat VDZ on a slow, high bouncing hard court at Indian Wells last October as slight favourite, so it may be the case that VDZ is a bit short in price today.

The Dutchman at 1.402/5 seems plenty short enough against a very capable opponent in Giron when you consider that VSZ was 1.384/11 to beat Paul Jubb last week and laying him to win it 2-0 at 2.01/1 looks the bet here.

Finally, the match between Dusan Lajovic and Daniel Altmaier features two more clay courters that struggle to break on grass, with the latter having broken serve only 7% of the time in his six main level matches on grass. (2-4 win/loss).

Lajovic is 5-14 win/loss on grass at main level in his career and has broken just 11% of the time, so this second career meeting between Lajovic and Altmaier could go long, too.

Altmaier was a comfortable winner over Lajovic when they met in Umag on the clay just over a year ago and he has the advantage of having played several matches on grass already this swing, while Lajovic has been playing on clay at Challenger level.

The German has played 0.43 tie breaks per set on grass so far in his career and while he's the favourite, the higher bouncing grass in Mallorca might give Lajovic a chance of taking this one past the overs mark, depending on how motivated here.

So, another tricky day in prospect here in Majorca and laying VDZ to beat Giron in straight sets looks the bet at 2.01/1