ATP Majorca Tips: Bellier play style could frustrate Griekspoor

Sean Calvert
23 June 2022

Griekspoor may find Bellier's serve-volley style tough to handle

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The Mallorca Championships has reached the quarter final stage and Sean Calvert has one more wager to consider on Thursday...

"That Bellier style of play is proving tough to handle on these quick and bouncy Majorca courts..."

It's my last day at the Mallorca Championships on Thursday and I don't think I'll be returning any time soon, all things considered.

We managed to make a profit on Wednesday thanks to Aslan Karatsev taking the opening set against Daniil Medvedev as a 3.8014/5 chance, but this tournament seems destined for a short stay on the ATP calendar (although you never know with the ATP).

Even getting to the venue is a major mission (unless you drive there) and getting away from it is a disaster, with taxis in Majorca as rare as hen's teeth and the Mallorca Country Club venue tucked away up a rather large hill in the middle of nowhere.

So, I'll make the trek there one last time on Thursday and the best wager looks to me to be to back a long opening set in the match between Antoine Bellier and Tallon Griekspoor.

I said yesterday that Bellier's net-rushing, lefty game might be a problem for Pablo Carreno Busta early on and it proved to be the case as Bellier nicked the opener and went on to win the match in what was a real smash-and-grab victory.

PCB ended the match ahead on most of the stats, but he went 0-13 on break points, while Bellier took both of his two break chances.

Griekspoor, meanwhile, got bageled by Alex Molcan and nicked it in a final set tie break, which leaves the Dutchman on just 8.9% breaks of serve and 0.37 tie breaks per set on grass at main level.

I don't expect Griekspoor to find it any easier than PCB did in breaking the Swiss

Now, Griekspoor must face Bellier, a left-hander that will play serve and volley pretty much the whole match and he showed against PCB that he's willing to stick to that style and it serves him well.

Although PCB should have done better on his break chances, Bellier saved many of them by being bold and backing himself in tight situations and I don't expect Griekspoor to find it any easier than PCB did in breaking the Swiss.

That Bellier style of play is proving tough to handle on these quick and bouncy Majorca courts and over 10.5 games in set one looks the bet here at 2.6313/8.

Bonzi with the advantage over Altmaier on grass

I said in Wednesday's preview that Benjamin Bonzi had a decent chance against Denis Shapovalov and it was another bad-tempered and ill-disciplined display from the Canadian on Wednesday.

Shapo let what he perceived as a bad call on a serve that he thought was an ace (they use the automatic line calling system in Majorca) tip him over the edge in set two of that match and he didn't win another game.

Altmaier's 4-4 win/loss record on grass at main level has seen him break serve only 8.9% of the time

Bonzi won't care and he faces surprise quarter finalist Daniel Altmaier, who upset Sebastian Baez on Wednesday.

I'm on Bonzi outright and I'd be very disappointed if the Frenchman didn't beat Altmaier, who Bonzi defeated in straight sets in Wimbledon qualies last season as a 1.491/2 chance.

Altmaier's 4-4 win/loss record on grass at main level has seen him break serve only 8.9% of the time, while Bonzi has broken 22.2% of the time and held serve more often than Altamier in the Frenchman's own eight-match main level career on grass.

Bautista Agut capable of challenging Medvedev

Roberto Bautista Agut Halle 2022.jpg

Roberto Bautista Agut had a day off on Wednesday when Nick Kyrgios withdrew, due to an abdominal injury, and I wouldn't rule RBA out of it against Daniil Medvedev.

The pair met in Halle only a week ago and RBA took none of his nine break point chances that day, while Medvedev only won 33% of his second serve points, so there's enough in those numbers to give the Spaniard confidence here.

He beat Medvedev in all three of their prior career meetings and Halle was RBA's first event back after struggling with a wrist injury during the clay season.

He'd have preferred, I'm sure, to have played another match here in Majorca before this clash with Medvedev, but we still haven't seen the very best of Medvedev this grass swing and the Russian seems a touch short here for me.

Medvedev was priced up at 1.402/5 to beat RBA last week and now after coming through in three sets against what looked an injured (in the later stages) Aslan Karatsev, he's a 1.341/3 shot against RBA.

Had RBA had a match or two more under his belt I may well have taken a chance on him today, but that, plus the fact that it's pretty windy here in Mallorca, puts me off a bit.

I've seen RBA struggle in the wind before and there's enough doubt for me to pass on him this time.

Tsitsipas should have too much for Giron

Marcos Giron Halle 2022.jpg

Finally, Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Marcos Giron and this should be just the sort of test that the Greek is looking for on grass as he tries to get to grips with the surface.

Our man Ilya Ivashka had a poor day on Wednesday, unable to buy a first serve early on and that allowed Tsitsipas to relax with an early lead and he didn't look back, going on to beat Ivashka decisively.

Giron lacks the weapons to really hurt Tsitsipas and that's been the case in their two career meetings so far, which Tsitsipas has won comfortably.

On grass there's a chance that Giron may push Tsitsipas a little harder, but I can't see the Greek losing this one.

So, not a huge amount of value around, and the wind may play a part again today, but the one bet is just half a point on over 10.5 in set one of Bellier v Griekspoor.