ATP Kitzbuhel Tips: Altitude gives Hanfmann a real chance against Griekspoor

Sean Calvert
27 July 2022

Hanfmann trains at altitude and has a good record in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel

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Round two of the Croatia Open Umag and the Generali Open Kitzbuhel are in-play on Wednesday and Sean Calvert returns with more picks on day three...

"Hanfmann is a former finalist in both Gstaad and Kitzbuhel and he trains in Munich, where there’s around 500m of altitude, so Hanfmann is very much a player who enjoys these conditions."

It was a good day for our bets on Tuesday, with tie break machine Nicolas Jarry recording yet another opening set tie break, while Aljaz Bedene did enough for our 2-0 lay of Lorenzo Musetti to be successful.

On to Wednesday now and the weather might make it a bit of a stop/start one in Kitzbuhel, with rain forecast for most of the day, but it only looks like very light rain and will probably be playable.

The underdog that holds most appeal in Kitzbuhel is Yannick Hanfmann, whose ability in and liking for altitude tennis makes him a tempting option against Tallon Griekspoor.

Many times over the years in Kitzbuhel we've seen the players that have had a match or two in these conditions beat the player that's coming on cold from a tournament at sea level and that could be the case again on Wednesday.

Griekspoor was originally due to have played a qualifier in round one in Kitzbuhel, but when the draw got changed after Matteo Berrettini's withdrawal, Griekspoor took over Berrettini's spot and his bye into round two.

So, it's advantage Hanfmann in terms of the German having had not only one match (half a match really) in this altitude, but he also played four matches at altitude in Gstaad last week, so he should be dialled in.

Hanfmann is a former finalist in both Gstaad and Kitzbuhel and he trains in Munich, where there's around 500m of altitude, so Hanfmann is very much a player who enjoys these conditions.

Tallon Griekspoor Halle 2022.jpg

Griekspoor is coming here from sea level in Hamburg and and he's being priced on his good recent form on the clay that's seen him win the Amersfoort Challenger and then beat Holger Rune in Hamburg.

But he's never been the most consistent of players and after that good win over Rune he was beaten by Borna Coric the next round and he's had no success against Hanfmann in the past either.

Indeed, Hanfmann has dished out a bagel to Griekspoor in both of their career meetings (one was only last season on the clay) and in both of those matches Hanfmann was favourite, so this price on Griekspoor looks skinny and I'll take a point on Hanfmann at 2.727/4.

Sinner set to be tested by Munar

Arguably the most intriguing match of the day in Umag on Wednesday is the clash between number two seed Jannik Sinner and Jaume Munar.

This will be the first meeting between the pair and I wonder how long it will take Sinner to get used to the slow conditions in Umag, having not played since Wimbledon?

Sinner won Washington DC at roughly this stage of the season a year ago, but he's not on the entry list for this year's Washington DC, which is next week, or the other event, Los Cabos.

Unless he's waiting to see how he fares this week in Umag and expecting a wild card, it's a little odd for Sinner to play one week on the clay after a few weeks off following the grass, and then go straight to hard courts.

There's not a lot in it in terms of their 12-month main level stats on the clay

Given that Munar has had one match - and a long one at 2.5 hours - already here in Umag, I expect the determined Spaniard to make this a real test for Sinner.

There's not a lot in it in terms of their 12-month main level stats on the clay, with Sinner currently on a combined service points won/return points won total of 104 and Munar not far behind on 102.

Indeed, it's Munar that's created far more break point chances - a huge 0.90 per game - at main level on clay in the last year, but he's only taken 34% of those chances.

Sinner has created a decent 0.67 break chances per game and taken 44% of those opportunities, so this should be a very decent test for Sinner after a few weeks off.

Either the over games, over sets or Sinner to win it 2-1 in set betting at 4.03/1 look the best options here and I'll take the over 2.5 sets at 2.588/5 for half a point.