ATP Kitzbuhel Betting: Jarry's run of tie breaks set to continue against Martinez

Sean Calvert
25 July 2022

Big-serving Nicolas Jarry is tough to break at altitude

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Round one of this week's ATP Tour events in Umag, Kitzbuhel and Atlanta continues on Tuesday and Sean Calvert has three bets to consider on day two...

"Jarry's tie break stats are phenomenal of late, with 14 of his last 20 opening sets (all played on clay) going past 10.5 games..."

The weather may well have a say in proceedings in Kitzbuhel on Tuesday, with the forecast predicting thunderstorms and rain for most of the day, so for that reason I'll be a little careful with my bets in Austria.

The first bet that I'll take on Tuesday is for the incredible Nicolas Jarry to play a long opening set against Pedro Martinez.

Jarry's tie break stats are phenomenal of late, with 14 of his last 20 opening sets (all played on clay) going past 10.5 games, while in Gstaad last week seven of the eight sets he played in the main draw went to a tie break.

He's only played four matches in his Kitzbuhel career and every one of his opening sets in those four matches went over 10.5 games.

This is due to his very strong serve and weak return game and here at altitude it accentuates his serve and his lack of ability to break serve.

Martinez is a former Kitzbuhel finalist and a Santiago champion, so he can play at altitude, but I imagine it will take him some time to get to grips with the Jarry serve in these conditions in a first career meeting.

So, my bet here is one point on over 10.5 games at a price of 3.02/1.

Hanfmann and Melzer also tie break candidates

Yannick Hanfmann AO 2022.jpg

Another one in Kitzbuhel that may well feature a tie break or two is the clash between Gerald Melzer and Yannick Hanfmann.

Melzer loves a bit of altitude tennis and as recently as two weeks ago he made the final of the Bogota Challenger at around 2,640m of altitude.

He's gone well in Kitzbuhel over the years as well, losing in two tie breaks to Paulo Lorenzi in the 2016 semi finals and to Joao Sousa in the 2017 semi finals.

He hasn't made the Kitzbuhel main draw since then and this will be his first ATP Tour level appearance since Bastad in 2018.

In familiar conditions and highly motivated playing at home and having come through qualifiers he'll be a tough round one opponent for Hanfmann, who is also known to enjoy playing at altitude.

He's a former finalist here in Kitzbuhel and in Gstaad, where six of his eight main level matches have featured at least one tie break, and I like the over 10.5 games in set one of this match as well at 3.39/4, but for only half a point, this one.

I'm slightly tempted by the 2.68/5 about Melzer winning the match, too, but I'll take the bigger priced option.

Quick turnaround for Hamburg champ Musetti

Aljaz Bedene RG 2022.jpg

Over at the Croatia Open Umag, I'm keen to oppose Hamburg champion Lorenzo Musetti in some way against Aljaz Bedene, who always gets plenty of support here.

This is a 'home' tournament for the Slovenians and Bedene usually puts a decent effort in Umag, which may not be the case with Musetti, who will surely have had a bit of a celebration after winning Hamburg.

Musetti, too, will get plenty of love from the crowd, with Umag being a short hop across the Adriatic from Italy, and it might be enough for the Italian to grab the win, but he looks short in price at 1.364/11 considering the very quick turnaround.

Either the games handicap or set handicap appeal here and I'll recommend a one point lay of Musetti to win it 2-0 at 2.1011/10.