ATP Hamburg Betting: Fognini generously priced to beat Khachanov

Sean Calvert
21 July 2022

Fognini has a good record in Hamburg

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

After another odds-against winner on Wednesday, Sean Calvert returns with more picks in the second round of matches at the Hamburg European Open and the Swiss Open Gstaad...

"The plus side for Fognini is that he appears to relish playing Hamburg, where he has an 18-8 record, and I can't imagine that slower conditions would help Khachanov either..."

It's been a very decent week so far at the Hamburg European Open and the Swiss Open Gstaad and Alex Molcan was the star for us on Wednesday, providing a 2.608/5 winner, while our other bet was held over due to rain in Gstaad.

After the seriously hot day that Hamburg had on Wednesday, it's set to change massively on Thursday, with the dial dipping from 38C to around 22C.

Rain is set to break the hot spell and thunder is possible, so conditions should play a little slower than the 79% holds of serve and 53% tie break matches that was the average after the first 15 matches of this year's tournament.

Daniel Elahi Galan Adelaide 22.jpg

And perhaps the slower conditions will help qualifier Daniel Elahi Galan, who looks attractively priced against the wildly inconsistent Aslan Karatsev.

If we're looking at this match in terms of statistics on clay at main level over the past 12 months (last 10 matches for Elahi Galan), then Elahi Galan should be favourite.

The Colombian has a higher win percentage, a better combined service points won/return points won total and the same service hold/break total than Karatsev, so I'm not sure about the pricing of this match.

Karatsev's best level is higher, but he so rarely produces it - and especially on clay where he's 4-7 win/loss in the last 12 months - that I'm happy with 2.47/5 on Elahi Galan here.

Karen Khachanov Rotterdam.jpg

Fabio Fognini isn't usually a fan of slower conditions on the clay - he usually likes it to play a little quicker than what we'll probably get on Thursday in Hamburg - but he's still a reasonable choice to beat Karen Khachanov.

The one-year main level clay stats show that Fognini is on a combined service points won/return points won total of 99 and Khachanov is on 100, but Fognini leads the hold/break totals by a narrow margin.

So, it's a 50-50 match really, with Khachanov maybe being favoured at odds of 1.68/13 by virtue of the weak showings lately by the 35-year-old Italian, who may also be fatigued after a long match on Tuesday and several matches last week (in singles and doubles).

On the plus side for Fognini is that he appears to relish playing Hamburg, where he has an 18-8 record, and I can't imagine that slower conditions would help Khachanov either, so I think it's worth a small wager on Fabio at 2.68/5.

Alcaraz could be tested by motivated Krajinovic

Filip Krajinovic Dubai 2022.jpg

Finally in Hamburg I'm going to take Filip Krajinovic to win a set off Carlos Alcaraz, who was way off the pace in his opening round against Nicola Kuhn and just edged it in a final set tie break against the world number 259.

I expect Alcaraz to improve for that outing, but as we saw a couple of days ago when he toughed it out against Sebastian Baez, Krajinovic is a much more determined character than he often is when he gets the clay of Hamburg under his feet.

Krajinovic, like Fognini, plays some of his best tennis in Hamburg and he took a set off Alcaraz last summer on the clay of Umag when Krajinovic was slight favourite for that match.

Indeed, Krajinovic won 15% more points on second serve that day than Alcaraz and just nine points fewer overall and while Alcaraz has gone on to bigger and better things since then I'm still of the mind that he's a bit short here against a motivated opponent keen on another Hamburg final.

The bet here is to lay Alcaraz 2-0 at around 1.705/7 for one point, while for bigger-priced bettors the set one to Krajinovic also appeals.

Over in Gstaad the one bet (other than our 2-0 lay of Casper Ruud which is held over from Wednesday) I was going to take was tie breaks in the match between Nicolas Jarry and Yannick Hanfmann, but the weather has put me off.

Earlier in the week was better for those bets when it was dry, hot and sunny, but it's really turned now, with rain and thunderstorms expected for much of the rest of the week.

Those aren't the right conditions for tie break bets, so I'll take three wagers on: half a point each on Fognini and Elahi Galan and a one point lay of Alcaraz 2-0.