ATP Finals Preview and Tip: Fritz value to have a strong start at 23/20

• Sinner should win v De Minaur

• Medvedev out of sorts

• Fritz good value at 23/20

The ATP Tour Finals in Turin kick off on Sunday and tournament favourite Jannik Sinner is expected to get off to strong start when he takes on Alex De Minaur.

Sinner was a finalist here in 2023, and will have designs on going one better this time round. There has been no better hard court player all season, and it would be a surprise if he were to start his campaign with defeat against Australia's De Minaur who he enjoys a perfect seven nil record over.

The other day one encounter looks more intriguing as fourth seed and 2020 champion Daniil Medvedev looks to get his tournament going with a win over Taylor Fritz.

Unfortunately for the Russian, this looks a tough assignment out of the gate.

Medvedev's titleless 2024

Not since 2017 has Medvedev had a season without collecting any silverware. He came close at the start of the year when he lead Jannik Sinner by two sets to love in the Australian Open final, but the Italian was able to fight back to start his trophy laden season in fine style.

Medvedev then came close at Indian Wells, but was usurped in the final by Carlos Alcaraz. It has been the tale of his season, he has been unable to match the level of the sport's top two.

Although he has been a steady performer across the year it is fair to say this has been an underwhelming campaign for Daniil. The top players look to have an edge to him, and worryingly he has been affected by a shoulder injury for much of the season.

At six foot six Medvedev is reliant on his serve to help him out, but it has been lacking in potency and for this season he is ranked only 36th for service points won.

He may be rock solid off the ground, but he is having to work much harder than he should to win points and matches and it is a weakness that is exposable for the right opponent.

Fritz form of his life

In contrast, Fritz is ranked fourth on the tour for average service points won.

It is a statistic that underlines the quality shown by Fritz across a season where it feels like he is showing the best form of his career.

He reached a debut Grand Slam final at the US Open, and then followed that up with a creditable showing in Shanghai. There was absolutely no shame in his defeats to Sinner and Novak Djokovic.

The Californian is executing his game very well right now and won't be daunted by Medvedev, especially considering a positive head to head record against the Muscovite.

They have played a handful of exhibition matches and Fritz leads that head to head three nil suggesting he matches up rather well with Medvedev. However, Medvedev has won their only tour meeting, triumphing 7/6 6/3 in Cincinnati back in 2022 when the Russian was the number one seed.

Fritz in a good place

Fritz qualified for the year end championships with room to spare, and it marked the first time he qualified under own steam. He also appeared in the 2022 edition thanks to a withdrawal from an injured Carlos Alcaraz. His qualification is an achievement that shows he is in a good place right now.

He has been able to enjoy taking his foot off the gas during the indoor swing and should be fresh to give a good account of himself this week.

Fritz performed well at the 2022 tournament, making it to the semi-final before running into Djokovic.

Medvedev may also have qualified comfortably for the Finals, but unlike Fritz he has no recent standout form to call upon.

Since the Olympics in July he has struggled to pick up noteworthy wins, with no victory in that time in a match where his closing price was higher than 1.51/2. Since July his best win on that measure was against Stefanos Tsitsipas, a player the Russian has routinely dominated throughout his career.

Medvedev could do with some wins and form but he was unable to compete in Vienna due to his shoulder and fell in the first round of Paris against Alexei Popyrin. There is no great reason for optimism right now for Medvedev.

It is unclear what condition Medvedev will be in as his pre-tournament comments were rather cryptic suggesting he assesses he lacks form, confidence and condition.

Before the off he said, "Tennis is very important, also confidence, the problem is that I will arrive in Turin without confidence, so I will try to build it through training and practice time, this is very important to me. There I will face the toughest opponents, so besides this, you also have to be in perfect physical condition, but tennis is the most important of all. You need to make a winning return when you need it, for example."

Fritz is aware of what to expect of Medvedev saying, "Daniil is obviously very awkward [to play] because he slows down the speed of the match a lot with how he plays and how he hits the ball. He doesn't play with a lot of spin or lift for you to work off of. You constantly are feeling like you have to lift and generate pace. He slows down the court a lot."

It won't be any easy match-up for Fritz, who will have to play at a good level to defeat Medvedev. But he has the form and 23/20 is good value for Fritz to get off to a winning start in Turin.

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