ATP Finals Preview and Tip: Back De Minaur hot start at 6/4

• All to play for in Ilie Nastase group

• Fritz favourite to advance

• 6/42.50 opening set win is essential for De Minaur

There is all to play for in the Ilie Nastase group at the ATP Tour Finals in Turin.

Tournament favourite Jannik Sinner, who has won each of his first two matches in convincing fashion without dropping a set, would be very unlucky to exit at the group stage. Yet, that could still happen if he were to lose to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets and Taylor Fritz were to defeat Alex De Minaur 2/0.

It is the least likely of ten potential outcomes that could play out on Thursday that would require Sinner to also lose his match by a significant game margin, itself unlikely given Sinner has dominated Medvedev by seven wins to one in their meetings over the past 13 months

Medvedev to his credit showed he likes nothing more than to silence the doubters as he showed in his heavy defeat of De Minaur. His performance was night and day from the shocker he produced against Fritz at the start of the week. I wouldn't completely write off Daniil's chances quite yet.

However, it is the other round robin encounter on Thursday between Fritz and De Minaur where there is most intrigue.

Fritz has the most chance of qualification given he can still lose to the Australian in three sets yet still go through should Sinner do the business against Medvedev.

For De Minaur, his task is clear. His only chance of remaining in the tournament is to win this match in straight sets. Even then, he may still lose out should his percentage of games won be lower than both Medvedev and Fritz. De Minaur must win, and do so convincingly.

He has a decent record against Fritz and I can see value in a hot start from De Minaur.

De Minaur matches up well to Fritz

The Australian has enjoyed success against Fritz over the past two seasons, winning both encounters played on hard courts in Canada and Australia.

De Minaur's strength as a player is to outlast his opponents in drawn out baseline rallies. Against Medvedev he was bettered by a player that could not only match his consistency, but had a stronger arsenal to take charge of points. The Australian commented that he felt Medvedev played at a better level than in their previous matches, which is fair as it was a strong showing by Daniil.

Fritz on the other hand will be depending on the quality of his serve and that keeping his ground game under control. The American is producing career best results with this formula, but De Minaur's consistent approach is not the easiest match-up for him.

The longer rallies should favour De Minaur more often than not. If he can extend points repeatedly it adds more pressure onto the Fritz service games and it is not impossible to imagine the Californian cracking under scrutiny.

De Minaur knows he has to be on his game here and although he's suffered consecutive losses in Turin he believes his game is in decent shape and remains optimistic. He said, "Everything has been great, apart from my results. I still have one match to play and I'm going to give 150% again. I hope to finish with a good feeling."

The Australian also has a strategy for handling Fritz. After their previous meeting in January De Minaur was often using slice, which Fritz did not handle well. Of that tactic he said, "I can do a lot more than just run side to side. I have other skills in my pocket. The slice was very effective today. It made him hit up on the ball."

Value on fast start from motivated De Minaur

Fritz can still reach the semi-finals even if he were to lose this match. The one thing he must do is avoid a heavy defeat, and that outcome seems unlikely given his standards over the last several months.

However, it is difficult to imagine his intensity will be naturally as high as that of De Minaur, who simply must burst out of the gates here.

De Minaur has a known strategy to get the better of Fritz, and his mission is clear. It is his first time at the ATP Finals and he is determined for it not to end in a whimper.

I can see value in De Minaur having a hot start against Fritz, whose market favouritism is justified but his 4/91.44 price feels too short given his opponent is motivated and has caused him bother in the past.

Read more tips, previews and insight across all sports on Betting.Betfair.com