Women's French Open Outright Tips: Sabalenka the better value of co-second favourites

• Swiatek unmoved as odds-on favourite

• Sabalenka well placed to challenge

• Sakkari and Pegula lead third quarter contenders

Neutral approach on Swiatek my call

After Thursday's draw, Iga Swiatek's price is stable as the 1.9110/11 tournament favourite, with little movement over the last few days. Despite the worries over her thigh issue - she's quoted as saying it shouldn't be a problem - backing an odds-on shot who is a fitness doubt is only for the brave.

However, any regular follower of women's tennis will know that Swiatek is head and shoulders above the rest of the field right now, so even with that injury, it's not exactly an attractive proposition to oppose the Pole in the outright market either. My considered opinion is that I'm taking a neutral approach on the world number one, and focusing on the bottom half of the draw where I think I've found some value.

Sabalenka the pick ahead of Rybakina

Solidifying their status as co-second favourites at 8.07/1 are Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka, with Rybakina's position in Q2 complicating matters for the Kazakh - she will need to get past Swiatek in the semi-finals if the tournament plays to seeding.

Sabalenka, though, as second seed, gets prime spot at the bottom of the draw, and cannot meet Swiatek (or Rybakina, for that matter), until the final. Of the two, I much prefer Sabalenka at prices - she simply has far better clay numbers this season than Rybakina, and it's also worth re-iterating Rybakina's lack of longer-term surface pedigree.

To me, this is a classic case of recency bias. If Rybakina had lost in her opening match to Sofia Kenin and Sabalenka won the tournament, Rybakina would be among the next tier of contenders priced at 30.029/1 or more. I simply cannot have Rybakina at these single-digit prices.

However, I'm prepared to give Sabalenka a free pass for that loss to Kenin, coming after a title in Madrid and in advance of the toughest Grand Slam physically, she should benefit from the rest over the last week or two.

Other threats from the bottom half of the draw

The biggest threat in Q4 for Sabalenka should be 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko, who is at 30.029/1 in the outrights. When looking for players here at bigger prices, I think we should focus on players with a high ceiling and decent recent surface numbers.

Ostapenko has both, winning this event in 2017 and running at in excess of 106% combined service/return points won percentage on clay this season so far. Anyone considering Sabalenka could consider a small saver on Ostapenko.

In my view, Marketa Vondrousova is the only other likely player who could derail Sabalenka's ambitions before the final. The Czech has a winning record against top-20 opposition this season, and superb clay numbers in 2023 also - particularly on return.

Often tipped by many as someone who can make an impact at a bigger price in Slams in the past, Vondrousova could well cause difficulty for higher ranked opposition here, and meets Ostapenko in what could be the match of the round in round three if the draw goes to seeding and form.

Quarter three is the real random bracket. Maria Sakkari has the pedigree to get through, but faces a tricky round one against Karolina Muchova, while Belinda Bencic has had injury problems. Jessica Pegula, the third seed, has had a pretty tough last few weeks, losing to qualifier Taylor Townsend in Rome, but could be a rival to Sakkari in what looks a really open quarter likely to produce an unexpected semi-finalist at the very least.