French Open

Women's French Open Day Seven Tips: Andreeva to win next-Gen clash with Gauff

  • Dan Weston
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 3:00 min read
Roland Garros Stadium
The third round continues at Roland Garros today...

There's plenty to discuss ahead of the remaining third round matches at Roland Garros in the women's singles, so returning to discuss it all is Dan Weston...

  • Swiatek and Rybakina back in action

  • Andreeva the pick over Gauff

  • Cocciarretto one to keep an eye on


Andreeva's return gives her great chance against Gauff

While the outright market leaders will take the headlines on Saturday, with both Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina in action and in Swiatek's case particularly, heavy favourites to progress into round four.

However, for me, the most interesting match-up to debate features two players who many perceive to be the future of the WTA Tour as Mirra Andreeva faces Cori Gauff. I think it's fair to suggest that qualifier Andreeva's rapid rise on the tour has impressed most regular observers of women's tennis, and her path somewhat matches Gauff's breakthrough several years ago.

The difference, in my view, is that Andreeva's underlying data is quite a bit better than Gauff's at the same stage, giving me more confidence that she could be the player who eventually proves to be Swiatek's consistent challenger for major events in the coming years.

This is particularly the case on serve, where Andreeva has held 8% more this season on clay, with similar return data, and with a strong serve so vital on the WTA Tour, this should stand her in good stead for both today's matches and in the future.

Ultimately, this is why I think that the market price, which sees Andreeva as the 2.1411/10 underdog is somewhat influenced by reputation. It's one of those weird spots where Andreeva is underdog for the match but shorter-priced by some distance in the outright market, so I'm very happy to side with her for this match.

Back Andreeva to beat Gauff @

2.14

Haddad Maia more comfortable in conditions

Moving on, Beatriz Haddad Maia is a marginal favourite at 1.845/6 for his meeting with Ekaterina Alexandrova, who tends to be more of a quick surface specialist. In theory, Haddad Maia should enjoy the conditions more as the more natural clay-courter.

Data-wise, Haddad Maia has a pretty decent return edge on clay this year and I think that makes her price justified as the market favourite here.

Cocciarretto can continue progress

I'm also fascinated to see how Elisabetta Cocciaretto fares against Bernarda Pera, and is a similar price to their quarter-final on hard court in Hobart in January which she narrowly won in three sets as a marginal favourite.

On clay this year, Cocciarretto has really impressed, breaking opposition more than they've held, and that should give her a nice edge for this clash. It's great to see Cocciarretto finally start to justify the potential she showed a few years ago when she first started playing on the main tour, and her higher ceiling and better return game should see her through here.

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