French Open Women's Singles: Back new star Andreeva to win in Paris

• Swiatek in a season-long slump

• Sabalenka the rightful favourite but the odds do not appeal

• Andreeva's favourable draw makes her the bet

Tough task ahead for Swiatek and Sabalenka

Usually at this time of year when I get round to penning my French Open preview I am expectant that Queen of Clay Iga Swiatek will leave Paris as the champion.

However, a turbulent 12 months has left the four time champion in an unusually vulnerable position and in 2025 it is more likely than ever that a new name will be scratched into the Coupe Suzanne Lenglen.

The Polish star does not start the tournament as favourite. That honour goes to her long-term rival Aryna Sabalenka.

While it is fair to assume the world number one Belarussian should be considered the most likely champion, it is far from a certainty for a player who only has one Roland Garros semi-final on her resumé from eight previous attempts.

Both Sabalenka and Swiatek have landed in a tough looking top half of the draw, and I am looking to the other side for value.

Sabalenka rightful favourite

In the top half you not only find the majority of players that most people would expect to challenge for this major, but also all the dark horses too.

According to the most trusted ELO surface ratings, Sabalenka is the rightful favourite to win the women's tournament, leaping ahead of the out of sorts Swiatek.

Sabalenka has been highly consistent of late, winning in Madrid while reaching the semi-final of Rome and the final of Stuttgart. While this is an impressive record, it is not exactly dominant. 

I expect Sabalenka to go far in this event but at 4.131/10 on the Betfair Exchange the odds are too short to invest in before a ball is struck.

Swiatek's struggles

Swiatek has lost her air of invincibility, her confidence in tatters after a difficult year in which she was unable to win a gold medal at the Paris Olympics when she was expected to complete business as usual in the French capital.

The Pole is still capable of a very high level of tennis but her form derails very quickly, and under pressure she has crumbled repeatedly of late. A semi-final loss from match point up at the Australian Open has been followed by a sequence of surprise defeats that has resulted in her falling to fifth in the world ranking prior to this tournament - her lowest position since 2022.

The manner of her defeats to the likes of Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva is worrying, as she has fallen behind the curve of what other top level players are doing on court and is struggling to find the answers needed to rebound.

At 4.84/1 backing Swiatek does not provide the same appeal it usually does at this time of the season.

Top heavy top half

My pick in Betfair's pre-draw column of Olympic champion Qinwen Zheng is not without hope, although it will undoubtedly be difficult.

Like Sabalenka and Swiatek the Chinese player is stuck in a highly competitive section featuring Diana Shnaider, Clara Tauson, Amanda Anisimova and Peyton Stearns - all of whom are more than capable on the dirt.

What I like about Qinwen is her personality. She has an extremely high level of self-belief, and although her form this season has been ragged there is no doubting her appetite for the biggest occasions.

Stunning Swiatek at the Olympics was an impressive demonstration of what she can achieve, and after a return to form in Rome I have confidence that she is a contender. 

After the announcement of a difficult draw Zheng can be backed at 23.022/1 on the Betfair Exchange.

Andreeva can challenge

The biggest winners of this draw are undoubtedly Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva, both of whom arrive with form in Paris, and have been handed a path devoid of any expected title challengers.

It is very difficult to see Gauff not making at least the quarter-final where she is scheduled to encounter Australian Open champion Madison Keys. Since her Melbourne victory, Keys has been consistent but her Roland Garros expectations are low. She is however a potential contender for Wimbledon.

The third quarter of the draw is where I expect the best value will be found. Russian sensation Mirra Andreeva is having a stellar season, scoring hard court titles in Dubai and Indian Wells before quarter-final appearances in both Rome and Madrid where she lost each time to Gauff.

Similarly to the American, Andreeva has a path to the quarter-finals that you'd expect her to complete. Big names including Naomi Osaka, Karolina Muchova and Marketa Vondrousova are all found here but for one reason or another, confidence in their prospects this time around are minimal. The highest seed is Jessica Pegula but her flat hitting game has only ever delivered one quarter-final result in Paris. 

There is very little to pick between Gauff and Andreeva but so early in her career Mirra does not have Coco's baggage of defeats and dents in belief of whether she can cross the finishing line. The sky remains the limit for Andreeva. 

Gauff on the other hand has accumulated many battle scars from falling short at the business end of Slams, and that is a worry before any prospective meeting with Andreeva.

At 7.26/1 it is Mirra Andreeva, who has unlimited potential, that I am backing to win the French Open.

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