French Open: Players to watch, players to avoid and the dark horses who can surprise at Roland Garros 2025

• Alcaraz the right favourite and the player to beat in men's tournament

• But Swiatek looks vulnerable on women's side

• Best betting value can be found in women's event

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Reigning men's champion Carlos Alcaraz looks to be in pole position to defend his title, while four time winner Iga Swiatek appears to be vulnerable in her quest to remain the queen of clay.

The most likely challenger for Alcaraz is likely to be his generational rival Jannik Sinner, although Olympic champion Novak Djokovic will be keen to show there is life yet in the old dog.

Swiatek is suffering a crisis of confidence and after a horrendous clay swing, where you'd typically expect to see her best work, she will enter the draw as the tournament's fifth seed. World number one Aryna Sabalenka, 2024 Olympic gold medal winner Qinwen Zheng and the most consistent tour player of recent months Coco Gauff must sense a realistic opportunity to wrestle the Suzanne Lenglen trophy from the grasp of the previously invincible Pole.

Here I will give you a run-down of why you should keep an eye on the players I've already listed - and more - as you size up your French Open outright picks ahead of Thursday's draw.

French Open men's tournament analysis

Alcaraz - the prince of clay

Now that his compatriot Rafa Nadal has finally called a day, there is a new heir ready to continue Spanish dominance of this event.

Carlos Alcaraz is the player to beat in Paris. Although he does not have the world number one ranking next to his name, over the past few seasons he has shown that he is the master of the natural clay and grass surfaces.

During this clay season the Murcian has cemented his status ahead of the rest by winning first career titles at the two most relevant clay court Masters events of Monte Carlo and Rome.

His performance levels have been variable but when it has mattered he has found gears that other players simply do not have. Injury and illness affected him throughout the last few months, but even then he still cut his way through the field.

At 11/102.11 Alcaraz is a justified favourite on the Betfair Sportsbook, and will take some beating.

Too soon for Sinner

In all likelihood this event arrives too soon since Jannik Sinner's return to tour following his three month ban for a doping offence.

It is a mark of his consistency that despite this extended absence the Italian remains a clear distance ahead of his rivals atop the world rankings.

Sinner showed his quality by strolling to the final in Rome, although he did struggle physically in the semi-final and final to suggest that no matter how good a player he is, there is still a need to build up match fitness.

Nevertheless, it will still require a top player to end his run. After all, prior to running into Alcaraz in last Sunday's final he was on a ridiculous 26 match winning streak.

I expect Sinner should be in the second week without too much trouble, but he can't afford to waste too much energy getting there. In his absence several players have been showing good signs on the dirt, so he'll need to sharpen up in preparation for that eventuality.

Djokovic in decline?

Novak Djokovic continues to keep his cards close to his chest regarding his future. However, he surely can't be enjoying his recent results.

The 24-time Grand Slam champion has four first round losses on his record this season, and even recently apologised to fans for his lack of form. Expectations are low for Djokovic, but write him off at your peril.

Last summer he stunned the field by capturing the Olympic gold medal, which was the only accolade missing from the most perfect collection of honours ever gathered by a tennis player. 

He knows how to win the biggest prizes, but his powers are clearly waning and it would be a big surprise if he could outperform an elite player in a physical contest later in the tournament.

For all his greatness, I can't see him repeating last summer's Roland Garros heroics.

Zverev's time?

The one question Alex Zverev hates more than any other is: When are you going to win a Grand Slam title?

His best chances typically come at this tournament. In 2022 he had Nadal on the ropes in the semi-final before an horrific ankle injury took away that opportunity. Last year he made the final, but lost from two sets to one up against Alcaraz.

The German's combination of big serving and athletic baseline control is a formula to compete against any player on this surface. 

However, since defeat to Sinner in January's Australian Open final, this has been a season of struggle for Zverev. He has consistently lost earlier than expected including underwhelming shows at recent clay court Masters events.

The third seed will be a player nobody wants to see in their draw, but whether it be a title-run or an early exit, no result would surprise me for Zverev at this edition.

Ruud under the radar

With neither Alcaraz or Sinner in the draw of the Masters event in Madrid it was Casper Ruud who benefited most, scoring the biggest tournament win of his career.

The Norwegian is twice a runner-up in Paris, and no player has more victories on a clay court over the past five years. Despite that, there is little buzz about Ruud going all the way this fortnight.

He's clearly no mug on clay, but for all his consistency, only two career titles at 500 level or better is not the most fearsome resumé. 

At 20/121.00 he's priced about right.

Surprise packages in the French Open men's tournament?

Italy's Lorenzo Musetti has had a stellar clay campaign, reaching the final of Monte Carlo as well as the semi-finals of Madrid and Rome. However, he saved his worst tennis for the business end of those events, and until he proves otherwise it seems like winning big tournament's is out of his reach.

Likewise Britain's Jack Draper has been in decent nick on the dirt, with a final in Madrid to show for his efforts. Unfortunately he blinked badly from a break up against Ruud, and although he's getting closer he could benefit from more experience negotiating the stress required to win the biggest tournaments.  

Holger Rune is my joker in the pack. I am high on his potential to win a French Open title one day, but in all likelihood it probably won't be this one. The Dane has been bothered by one injury or illness after another in the build-up to this year's event. There is the potential plenty of upside in his 55/156.00 price should you take an optimistic view on his current wellbeing.

Francisco Cerundolo, Joao Fonseca and Arthur Fils are priced at 50/151.00 or above, and all three are capable of beating the top players on a good day. However, how many good days they will have in one tournament is anyone's guess.

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French Open women's tournament analysis

Swiatek's season to forget

It has been a turbulent 12 months for the clay court maestro. Things have fallen apart since claiming her fourth French Open title last year.

Swiatek was a red-hot favourite heading into the Olympic Games played on her favoured Parisian clay, but she was undone by a breakthrough performance from China's Qinwen Zheng. 

The result seems to have rocked her confidence, and with the addition of a short drug ban undermining her credibility, it's perhaps little surprise that Swiatek isn't the same player as before.

There have been many upset losses on her scorecard this season, but the expectation was that everything would be fine once the clay season resumed. Unfortunately, it has only eroded Swiatek's confidence further.

Defeats to Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins were not impossible, as both players have enjoyed wins over Swiatek in the past, but never on her beloved clay.

The most glaring red flag however has been a crushing 1&1 defeat to Coco Gauff in Madrid. Swiatek wins over Gauff used to be as inevitable as death or taxes, but she no longer should be the favourite in that match-up. Gauff, and other players, have caught up with Swiatek and appear to be overtaking her.

She will start the French Open up with the favourites at around 13/53.60, but I find it very difficult to justify a bet given recent evidence.

Gauff to get it right?   

That same evidence points to Coco Gauff being the most likely player to take advantage of Swiatek's demise. Back to back finals in Rome and Madrid stand Gauff out as the tour's in-form clay court player.

However, Gauff didn't win either title and she has been in similar positions prior to a Grand Slam where she is expected to take advantage of a great opportunity, yet has failed to do so. I find it difficult to put faith in Gauff for that reason.

Available to back at 6/17.00 - which is not the worst price for her relative chances - however experience shows backing Gauff in this position doesn't usually pay out.

Sabalenka's time to shine

This looks a great opportunity for Aryna Sabalenka to confirm her status at the head of the women's game by claiming a first French Open title.

Sabalenka is a proven winner, and arrives in Paris on the back of a third Madrid title, and a Rome quarter-final. 

At the French Open last year Sabalenka was incredibly unlucky that injury scuppered her chances against Mirra Andreeva in the final eight.

With a major doubt about her biggest rival Swiatek, this is surely a prime chance for Sabalenka to go all the way. The world number one should be considered the player to beat in the women's draw.

Qinwen new queen of clay?

For my money, the most intriguing player in either the men's or women's draws is Qinwen Zheng.

The Chinese star has a significant victory in Paris already, upsetting Swiatek en route to a gold medal at last year's Olympics.

Zheng has had a dreadful start to 2025 considering many expected her to push on after her breakthrough last year. The wheels are starting to turn again in the right direction as shown by some better performances in Rome last week.

She has the mettle to handle winning a title of this magnitude, and if she can drag herself into the latter rounds 19/120.00 will look very decent for each-way backers. However, I will be backing her win-only on the Betfair Exchange at 27.026/1.

Paolini, the ultimate underdog

One of the best stories in the sport last year was the unexpected run of Jasmine Paolini to both the French Open and Wimbledon finals.

The 5 ft 4 Italian caused a sensation with her squashbuckling, fearless attacking game taking her to the brink of the ultimate underdog success. 

Most would have expected her to fall away this year, but in Rome she proved that we must take her seriously as she scored the biggest success of her career.

I still find it fanciful that she becomes a Grand Slam champion, but if the path opens up for her you know she'll have a crack and it might just carry her all the way.

Dark horses

Mirra Andreeva arguably should have a category of her own, as the precocious teenager is making quick progress on realising her potential. Wins on the hard courts of Dubai and Indian Wells have established her as a player that will likely end the season a top five player. However, on clay there is still work to be done and I'm not convinced she's there yet.

Elina Svitolina has had a fine clay season, using all her nous to win in Rouen and have creditable runs at both Rome and Madrid. The veteran will be competitive, but at this stage of her career I find it difficult to imagine her as champion here.

The big hitting Grand Slam champion trio of Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Jelena Ostapenko are all priced at 25/126.00. I could understand anybody adding one of them to their portfolio as they have each shown form at some point in this season, yet I think all three are more lively contenders for Wimbledon.

There are many players priced 35/136.00 or better that you shouldn't write off in the women's tournament. In recent editions the likes of Paolini, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Barbora Krejcikova, Marketa Vondrousova and Karolina Muchova have all made the final at very big prices. 

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