French Open Daily Double: Krajinovic and Korda can surprise on Friday

Sean Calvert
26 May 2022

Krajinovic is a player worth following when he hits form

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The third round of the French Open starts on Friday and after being denied another daily double by a single point on Thursday, Sean Calvert returns with more value picks...

"FAA's French Open record now reads two bad defeats (to Seppi and Nishioka), one win in five sets and one win against an opponent who’d collapsed the previous day."

How unlucky were we with the daily double on Thursday, with Joao Sousa one point away on four occasions from taking the opening set from Lorenzo Sonego, before Federico Delbonis did his part by taking a set off Andrey Rublev.

The third round of the 2022 French Open begins on Friday and if history is any guide, this is the last round where we can expect a reasonable few underdogs to win.

In last year's French Open only one betting underdog won after round three and this round has produced an average of 24% underdog winners in the last nine years and matches that feature a tie break in round three has averaged 44% in the last nine years.

Auger-Aliassime set to be tested by Krajinovic

Filip Krajinovic Dubai 2022.jpg

The two matches where I feel there could be an edge on Friday are the ones involving Felix Auger-Aliassime and Carlos Alcaraz, both of whom might face stern resistance.

Starting with FAA then and his clay game doesn't stand up to much scrutiny and once again at the French Open he struggled badly in round one against fairly mediocre opposition in Juan Pablo Varillas.

In that match, FAA had to come back from two sets down to get the win, and then he got lucky when he faced an opponent in Camilo Ugo Carabelli who was in no condition to be playing really.

Carabelli won an epic five setter against Aslan Karatsev in four hours and 17 minutes and as if that wasn't dramatic enough, his coach found the player later that night on the floor of his hotel room with a bloody face.

"I passed out, it was at night, it was after the match against Karatsev" Carabelli explained. "I had never played five sets or in front of so many people. I did some tests and they were fine. It was a peak of stress."

That would explain his weak showing against FAA and so the latter's French Open record now reads two bad defeats (to Seppi and Nishioka), one win in five sets and one win against an opponent who'd collapsed the previous day.

Setting that aside, FAA's clay stats for the last 12 months are okay, but not so much better than those of opponent Filip Krajinovic to make the Canadian a 1.282/7 chance in my view.

Indeed, his combined service points won/return points won total of 103 is the same as that of Krajinovic in the same period of time and it could certainly be argued that Krajinovic is coming into form at the right time.

The Serbian crushed Andrey Rublev in straight sets in Rome before scoring only three fewer points than Jannik Sinner in a round three loss there.

The Serb has won more service points, more return points and held and broken more often than Felix, so I'm happy to take Krajinovic +1.5 sets here at 2.3811/8

Then he's backed that up by beating Reilly Opelka in straight sets and then what should have been another 3-0 win against Borna Gojo, so he's in form and Krajinovic is one of those streaky players that make him worth following while he's feeling good.

He's also beaten FAA on clay (Rome 2020) and lost another tight one against him (also in Rome, but 2021) and Krajinovic leads all the stats in their three-match all levels clay head-to-head series.

The Serb has won more service points, more return points and held and broken more often than Felix, so I'm happy to take Krajinovic +1.5 sets here at 2.3811/8.

The main doubt that I always have over Krajinovic is stamina, so I'd rather back him to win two sets than three, as this may well go long.

Korda capable of ruffling Alcaraz's feathers

The second play for Friday is to take Seb Korda to win a set (he may well win more) against Carlos Alcaraz, who came so close to going out in round two at the hands of Albert Ramos.

The likes of Korda and Alex De Minaur have shown that you can rush Alcaraz into mistakes by taking the ball early and if it gets windy (which is in the forecast) Korda is a player who doesn't mind that, while Alcaraz has shown he can struggle in the wind.

Korda beat Alcaraz in Monte-Carlo as a 4.28 chance and this is one of those rare occasions where a player is actually a bigger price for a rematch in very similar conditions (albeit over the longer format) with Korda now a 5.04/1 shot.

Korda and Alex De Minaur have shown that you can rush Alcaraz into mistakes by taking the ball early and if it gets windy (which is in the forecast) Korda is a player who doesn't mind that

That Monte-Carlo match was Alcaraz's first on clay after winning Miami and going deep at Indian Wells, while Korda had played one match in the principality before that and Alcaraz only converted six of his 19 break chances that day (Korda 7 of 10, so much more clinical).

So, there are good reasons for the odds moving in Alcaraz's favour (as well as his stellar clay form since that loss to Korda), but he'll do well to win this 3-0.

Alcaraz showed his champion's mentality once again in the win over Ramos in taking it away from the opponent at the critical times rather than waiting and hoping for a mistake and that's reminiscent of Novak Djokovic to me.

You've got to wonder if that effort will hamper his progress deep into the second week if Alcaraz gets there, but as far as Friday is concerned Korda's style of play should at least challenge the Spaniard.

So, Krajinovic +1.5 sets and Korda +2.5 sets is the pay for Friday at odds of 3.96.