French Open Daily Double: Back to form Delbonis can take a set off Rublev

Sean Calvert
25 May 2022

Delbonis' lefty game can cause problems for Rublev

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Round two of the French Open completes on Thursday and Sean Calvert has another two value picks on day five in Paris...

"Rublev’s comparatively weak backhand (when compared to his forehand) should be given a decent test by Delbonis, who can kick it up high in dry conditions on the clay to that wing of the Russian’s..."

The remainder of the round two matches are scheduled on Thursday at the 2022 French Open and among those in action today are the likes of Casper Ruud, Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev.

The weather looks set fair now for the rest of the tournament, according to the forecast, so no rain to make life tough for bettors over the next 10 days or so.

Joao Sousa RG 2022.jpg

On the main level clay stats over the last 12 months, the seemingly rejuvenated Joao Sousa is a little way ahead of Lorenzo Sonego, yet the Portuguese scrapper is rated a 2.8815/8 underdog for their match on Thursday.

The obvious reason for this is fatigue, with Sousa having a short turnaround from the Geneva final to round one of the French Open, where he played five sets in a typically determined win over Chun Hsin Tseng.

It's been a huge turnaround in form from Sousa this past week or so from barely being competitive at main level for a few years, due to injuries in the main, to where he is now and he's in much better form than Sonego.

Sousa's clay (main level) hold/break total in the last 12 months is now 106 (Sonego 102) and his combined service points won/return points won total is 102 (Sonego also 102).

Lorenzo Sonego Buenos Aires 22.jpg

Sonego had a gimme in round one over Peter Gojowczyk, who after his injury problems had no ambitions other than to complete and get his round one loser's cheque, and Sonego's only other wins this clay swing have been against a back-from-injury Ilya Ivashka and Elias Ymer.

It's clearly risky to back Sousa to win the match, but he has won back-to-back five setters in majors before, and 2.3811/8 about him winning set one looks fair value given the respective form of the two players this clay swing.

Delbonis can provide a tricky test for Rublev

We profited from Andrey Rublev failing to win in straight sets against Soonwoo Kwon in the opening round and we may well do the same in round two, with Rublev taking on Federico Delbonis.

Delbonis has had a rough time of it lately and hadn't seemed fully match for a while until Geneva last week when he beat Ricardas Berankis and should have defeated Thanasi Kokkinakis but for a typical Delbonis choke from a winning position.

He confirmed his improvement with a comfortable straight sets win over the clay-averse Adrian Mannarino in round one here in Paris and it shouldn't be forgotten that Delbonis made the last-16 here only a year ago.

Rublev's comparatively weak backhand (when compared to his forehand) should be given a decent test by Delbonis, who can kick it up high in dry conditions on the clay to that wing of the Russian's and that should make him a tricky test for the world number seven.

In Delbonis' French Open main draw career he's only lost in straight sets twice in 16 matches

Rublev is quite inexperienced at facing lefties on clay at main level, with only four matches played against them since 2015 and just seven matches in his career - and Rublev has only won two of those seven in straight sets.

He was very much inconvenienced by leftie Jack Draper in Madrid and I'm intrigued to see how he fares against someone with much more experience than Draper has on clay, such as Delbonis.

In Delbonis' French Open main draw career he's only lost in straight sets twice in 16 matches and both of those came in round one, so I'm happy to take him +2.5 sets at 1.804/5 here.

The double of Sousa/Delbonis pays around 4.28 if successful.

The other one I quite like today is Marton Fucsovics against Marin Cilic at odds of around 2.6313/8.

Fucsovics has the type of solid, yet powerful game that could well benefit from the many ups and downs that Cilic has on clay (and on other surfaces as well) and he's one of those players that tend to show up better in majors than in regular tour events (he's won 16 of his last 24 matches at majors).

He should be highly motivated to go well this fortnight, as he'll be one of the players most affected by the loss of ranking points at Wimbledon (if it comes to that) where he made the last eight a year ago.

Cilic has beaten Fucsovics twice, but both were a while ago and one was in a final set tie break, and Cilic has proven to be a costly player to back at this sort of price on clay lately.

He's lost six of his last 10 main level clay matches when priced between 1.412/5 and 1.594/7 so Fucsovics is one to consider as well.