Shanghai Masters Final Tips: Rublev's superior return game makes him favourite

• Rublev and Hurkacz through to the final in straight sets

• Rublev yet to drop a set here

• Return data the big difference between the duo

Rublev rides luck against Dimitrov in set one

Both Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz progressed to Sunday's final in straight sets, although Rublev's triumph over Grigor Dimitrov was slightly more swingy. The match turned on several major key points in set one, with Dimitrov failing to convert 0-40 on Rublev's serve at *2-3, but breaking to stay in the set when Rublev led *6-5, and then spurning a set point in the tiebreak. On such small margins are matches, and often titles, won.

Tournament favourite yet to drop a set

Following this win, Rublev is favourite to win the title, priced up at 1.618/13 at the time of writing to get the better of Hurkacz, who he has beaten in their last two head-to-head matches, both on hard court in 2022. The market line today is very similar to their previous meeting at Indian Wells in March last season, when Rublev won 7-6 6-4.

Rublev's record to get to this stage is 10-0 in sets, and while he's not yet met anyone ranked in the top 10 (and won't if he wins the title), he has beaten four top 40 players without being pushed the distance. Conversely, Hurkacz dropped sets against Fabian Marozsan, and wasn't far from exiting against Zhizhen Zhang.

Return data in Rublev's favour

In their wins in the event so far, both players have been strong on serve, holding 90%+ of the time, but Rublev's return data is far superior, suggesting he's found it far easier to create chances on the opposition serve. This is largely in line with 2023 hard court data, where Rublev has won more than 3% additional return points won, and has broken opposition 6% more frequently.

Given this data, it's very difficult to dispute the market line, and there's even very slight scope to consider Rublev a slight value favourite. However, it would require a price in excess of 1.654/6 for any value to be actionable, which isn't impossible if the market drifts slightly in the run-up to the match.