ATP Rome Men's Semi-Final Tips: Djokovic to get Ruud awakening

Dan Weston
14 May 2022
3:00 min read

Novak Djokovic looks short-priced today...

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We are now at the semi-final stage of the Rome Masters, with four players remaining who can all consider themselves worthy title contenders. Dan Weston previews the day ahead...

"I can understand why Djokovic is favourite, but not at these prices which look very short indeed against an opponent who has won over 80% of his matches on clay in the last year."

Tsitsipas similarly priced to last week in Madrid

Action in Rome gets underway a little later than earlier this week, with a 1330 UK time start for the opener - Stefanos Tsitsipas versus Alexander Zverev. Tsitsipas, after dropping sets in prior matches this week and saving match points in the process, got the job done a little easier yesterday against Jannik Sinner, while Zverev continued his run of straight-set victories this tournament - albeit against slightly weaker opposition generally.

Tsitsipas is the 1.705/7 favourite to get revenge on Zverev for last week's defeat in Madrid, which is basically the same line as last week. Then, I leant towards Zverev at market prices but not formally - there wasn't quite enough discrepancy between market and model prices.

Based on 12 month clay data, there's not much between the duo. The serve-oriented Tsitsipas has the edge on service numbers, but it's Zverev with a similar advantage on return, but 2022 season data isn't in alignment - Tsitsipas has a greater advantage on serve with the two players having similar return numbers. On this basis, it's pretty tough to dispute the market lines in what should be a very competitive match.

Djokovic looking short-priced for Ruud clash

The market suggests that this won't be the case for the second semi-final tonight between Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud. Djokovic found it tough last night against Felix Auger-Aliassime, nicking their clash 7-5 7-6, while Ruud had the reverse scoreline in his win over Denis Shapovalov.

Djokovic is the 1.232/9 favourite, which appears to be a line based on reputation more than anything. Ruud has won a higher percentage of service points on clay in the last 12 months, with Djokovic leading on return, but 2022 season data - a year which has been a struggle for the world number one so far - shows a drop-off for Djokovic.

I can understand why Djokovic is favourite, but not at these prices which look very short indeed against an opponent who has won over 80% of his matches on clay in the last year.

Ruud is an extremely strong clay-courter, running at almost 110% combined service/return points won on the surface in the last year, so I'm confident in him competing well against Djokovic here.

We should be able to get in excess of 1.9010/11 on Ruud with a 4.5 game head start, and I think this looks a decent enough line to recommend today.

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Tsitsipas similarly priced to last week in Madrid

Djokovic looking short-priced for Ruud clash

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