Rogers Cup Semi-Final Tips: De Minaur and Sinner favourites to meet in the final

• Medvedev and Alcaraz out as event left wide open

• De Minaur favourite over Davidovich Fokina

• Paul not without a chance against Sinner

Top two seeds out on a dramatic Friday night in Canada

First it was second seed Daniil Medvedev, eliminated by Alex De Minaur, and then it was top seed Carlos Alcaraz, who was ousted in a deciding set by Tommy Paul. With Jannik Sinner and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina getting wins as well, there's a rather unpredictable feel to tonight's semi-finals.

The outright market agrees. Sinner is a solid favourite, but there's little to split the other three players, with De Minaur having a marginal advantage over Davidovich Fokina and Paul. This weekend promises plenty in terms of less heralded names reaching the latter stages of a Masters event.

De Minaur not far from value in first semi-final

The opening semi-final starts at 1930 UK time, and sees Davidovich Fokina face De Minaur, with Davidovich Fokina surprisingly talking a 3-1 head-to-head lead into the clash, including their last meeting where he got the better of the Australian on grass - a surface which should have been much more to De Minaur's liking.

While De Minaur is the favourite at 1.768/11 to make the final, there's no doubt at all that Davidovich Fokina deserves to be here. Three underdog wins in a row including two over Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev, backed up by a routine victory over Mackenzie McDonald yesterday is certainly a good form line, although it's fair to suggest De Minaur also has impressed here, with three wins against the top 11 seeds, including second seed Medvedev last night.

De Minaur does have better hard court numbers this year, winning almost 4% more return points (service points won figures are similar) so he definitely deserves favourite status. Is he value? I'd rather be on him at the current prices than Davidovich Fokina, but I'd prefer at least 1.804/5 before considering it a decent value spot.

Fresh Sinner with edge over Paul

Following this, Sinner is a solid 1.454/9 favourite against Paul, and has had limited exertions here so far, having played a mere five sets to get to this stage after a first round bye plus Andy Murray's donated walkover. Conversely, Paul has battled through 11 sets so far, with three final set triumphs, and should be more fatigued than the Italian.

It's always difficult to predict how players back up statement victories, such as Paul's yesterday against world number one Alcaraz, but I lean towards it being tough to get back up for another match without much rest time.

With this in mind, and Sinner having better hard court data on both serve and return, it seems reasonable to consider the market isn't far off with their consensus. I'd have Sinner closer to 1.501/2, but there isn't enough discrepancy between market and model for there to be any actionable value.