Top seed Medvedev faces prodigious Brooksby
Monday's third round matches saw wins for top seed Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas, among others, while Jenson Brooksby continued his career progression with a hard-fought win over Roberto Bautista-Agut in three sets.
This means that there's a fascinating clash at the top of the draw tonight as Medvedev faces the prodigious Brooksby, and it's Medvedev who is the 1.201/5 favourite to get the win. The market is taking a bit of a chance here in my view, with Brooksby having strong wins over Tsitsipas, plus Karen Khachanov and the aforementioned Bautista-Agut in recent weeks. He's clearly on a big upward curve and almost Alexander Zverev in Acapulco at the end of February as well.
On hard court this year, Medvedev has won almost 7% more points on serve but it's Brooksby who has a notable advantage on return, winning nearly 4% more points on return.
In my view, this match could be a lot closer than the market thinks, and I've certainly seen worse spots than Brooksby receiving 4.5 games on the game handicap at around the 1.804/5 mark.
Alcaraz justified favourite over Tsitsipas
Another match which surely will be on the schedule for all neutrals is Stefanos Tsitsipas versus Carlos Alcaraz, with the Greek man looking to get revenge for his US Open defeat at the hands of Alcaraz last season. That match went to a fifth-set tiebreak and I wouldn't be surprised at all if today's match was pretty close as well.
Looking at hard court data this year, it's Alcaraz who has quite a solid edge with markedly better return numbers - Tsitsipas has better serve numbers but not nearly to the same extent. Given Alcaraz's continued improvement, it's completely justified that he's favourite over his higher-profile opponent, and the market doesn't look too far out of line pricing up Alcaraz at the current 1.608/13.
Norrie potentially a false underdog against Ruud
Taylor Fritz takes a 3-0 head-to-head lead into his meeting with Miomir Kecmanovic, but was the higher ranked player on all occasions, as he is today. Despite that, hard court stats suggest there's not that much between the duo and while Fritz is a justified favourite, the 1.645/8 market line looks a little short, particularly given his exertions last week when winning at Indian Wells.
Finally, there's interesting match-ups between Nick Kyrgios and Jannik Sinner - Kyrgios is the favourite - and also British interest as Cameron Norrie takes on Casper Ruud. Norrie has been in great form of late, standing on the cusp of the top ten, and while Ruud is notably a better server, Norrie has better return data. At prices, Norrie looks a slightly false underdog at 2.3811/8, but it's Brooksby who we put our faith in today.
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