ATP Tour Queen's & Halle Tips: Alcaraz with plenty to prove on grass

• Quick conditions expected at Queen's and Halle

• Alcaraz a weak favourite in London

• Side markets a good strategy this week

Quick conditions anticipated at Queen's Club

The week at Queen's Club signals that Wimbledon is almost here, and arguably the most prestigious grass court tournament apart from SW19 should be a fantastic week ahead.

Conditions in London are usually very quick - almost 85% of service games at the venue have been held over the last few years - and we should be anticipating aces, tiebreaks and fewer breaks of serve than the average tournament. If there is ever an event where big name players are at risk against big-servers, this is probably it.

Alcaraz with solutions to find on grass

This statement is even more fascinating given Carlos Alcaraz's status as the tournament favourite at 3.5551/20 on the Exchange. There really isn't much evidence that he's an effective grass-courter, having never played a Wimbledon warm-up event and never beating a top 30 player on the surface. In fact, both times he has played a top player on grass - Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner - he's been largely outclassed.

Of course, Alcaraz being on a big upward curve doesn't mean to say he can't find the solutions to his problems on the quickest surface on tour, but we can only go on the evidence that we have currently. Rafa Nadal was never a truly great grass courter, and he managed to win two titles at Wimbledon, but didn't do so after 2010, when Novak Djokovic began his spell of dominance in the tournament.

Tournament history with clear dynamics

Further against Alcaraz's chances is a tournament history which favours grass courters and/or big-servers. We have to go back to 2008 to find a winner (Nadal) who didn't fit either of those dynamics, and this generally fits the bill for runners-up as well. All the evidence suggests Alcaraz is a vulnerable favourite.

Who can take advantage? Looking at the outright market on the Exchange, Taylor Fritz 7.613/2 and Cameron Norrie 15.529/2 are strong grass-courters, while Grigor Dimitrov 22.021/1 has had success at this venue previously.

Alex De Minaur 17.016/1 should have the liking for quicker conditions, while Andy Murray 15.529/2 may be towards the end of his career but is 10 from 10 on grass in Challenger events so far this month, dropping just one set (albeit against weak opposition). Murray's first-round draw against De Minaur, though, is brutal.

The bottom quarter looks weakest by a long way, so finding a contender from quarter three makes sense in terms of finding a future finalist. For this, Fritz looks to be the man - he won in Eastbourne last year and was impressive at Wimbledon in 2022. The American looks the pick of the contenders, although the market is aware of that.

Medvedev favourite for competitive Halle event

In this week's other tournament, Halle, Daniil Medvedev is the tournament favourite with Stefanos Tsitsipas the second seed. In what looks a very competitive event indeed - again with very quick conditions expected - the field also contains Andrey Rublev, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev and continuing his return to main tour action on his best surface, Nick Kyrgios.

Kyrgios underwhelmed last week in Stuttgart in his first main tour match for eight months, and a second-round clash with Sinner should be a great way of ascertaining his current level ahead of Wimbledon. Medvedev is the current tournament favourite on the Exchange, but this is an event which a number of players should fancy their chances but with little overwhelming evidence that they are going to produce a high level ahead of the next seven days.

Side markets the potential angle this week

Perhaps the best strategy for the coming week is to watch and learn ahead of Wimbledon, with the value in the markets arguably stemming from the side markets.

On occasion, when there's a heavy favourite against a big-serving opponent, you can get big prices on the first set tiebreak eventuality, or the overs in the games market. Both of those markets are worth your attention over the course of these two tournaments.