- Fritz in for Alcaraz
- Outright favourites in Red Group
- Djokovic the man to beat
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So we are here: the conclusion of the 2022 season. A year which has seen new names challenge at the top of the ATP Tour and some previous elite players struggle to make much of an impact, or finish their careers. However, one name who certainly had a breakthrough year - world number one Carlos Alcaraz - is sadly out of this event with the injury he picked up in Paris several weeks ago, with Taylor Fritz the fortunate beneficiary.
Djokovic and Medvedev market-leaders from the Red Group
As is typically the case in this season-ending tournament, the eight players in the draw - the top eight ranked in the calendar year - are split into two groups, with two players qualifying from each. I've prepared some data for the players in each group for easy reference for readers (Nadal/Ruud haven't played enough indoors this year to have a points won data sample):-
You can see from the current Exchange prices that the two outright favourites - Novak Djokovic 2.407/5 and Daniil Medvedev 5.204/1 are both situated in the Red Group, leaving Stefanos Tsitsipas and in particular, Andrey Rublev, with a tough task to qualify.
Bigger prices on Green Group players makes sense
The reason why players in the Green Group are generally bigger-priced to win the event is because the two qualifiers will likely have to face Djokovic or Medvedev in the semi-final, and quite possibly, the final as well. So while prices such as 19.018/1 on Casper Ruud and 24.023/1 on Taylor Fritz look big at first glance, we have to rationalise that not only do they need to come in the top two of the group, but they also likely will have to beat both Djokovic and Medvedev subsequently in the knockout stages to win the event.
For those matches alone, they're likely to be a 3.02/1 plus underdog for each, so the outright lines don't look generous when you factor that in as well. In that Green Group, Felix Auger-Aliassime, on the run of a fantastic last few months, looks well justified as the favourite, although he's never beaten anyone in the group across a relatively small sample of matches.
Rafa Nadal comes into the event having played just one match (a loss to Tommy Paul in Paris) since the US Open, and has barely played indoors this year. While the Spaniard lacks match practice, and could well be rusty, he has an excellent record against top 10 opposition this season.
Taylor Fritz, though, beat Nadal in the Indian Wells final earlier in the year and has much better indoor data in 2021 than this year from a small sample (around 105% combined), so could well be more of a threat in the group than the odds suggest - I wouldn't rule out the American for qualification.
Djokovic the man to beat based on historical data
In the Red Group, things look a little more clear-cut. Djokovic has a superb recent combined head-to-head record against his group rivals, and that includes a 5-0 lead over Tsitsipas since the start of 2021. Numbers-wise, it's difficult to dispute that Djokovic deserves to be a strong favourite for both the group and the trophy, running at an imperious 117% combined service/return points won this year indoors.
Daniil Medvedev should run him close, and I rate the duo quite a bit higher than the lower-rated duo in the group, Tsitsipas and Rublev. It would be a surprise if either of the market leaders in the Red Group were knocked out before the semi-finals.