- Underdogs triumphed yesterday
- Today Nadal aims to avoid fourth straight loss
- Djokovic faces Tsitsipas
Nadal dominated by Fritz in opener
It was a double underdog winner day yesterday in Turin with Casper Ruud overturning the odds to defeat Felix Auger-Aliassime in two tight sets, while Taylor Fritz defeated Rafa Nadal via the same set scoreline.
Incredibly, this was the first time since 2009 that Nadal has been defeated in three consecutive matches.
Interestingly, it was also the second match in a row that Nadal lost a set 6-1 when he needed to win the set to either stay in or win the match, suggesting that fitness issues are rather hampering the Spaniard.
This was a comprehensive loss with Nadal's famed return game generating zero break point chances. Only his ability to save seven of the nine he faced on serve helped keep the winning margin down - he lost 4-0 to the American when looking at the number of games the two players faced break points on serve.
Ruud takes solitary chance to defeat Auger-Aliassime
Conversely, Auger-Aliassime's loss to Ruud was tight. The Canadian looked a deserved solid pre-match favourite and won 48% of points in the match, which was serve-dominated and featured just one break point - which Ruud crucially converted to give himself that break of serve in the second set which won him the match.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Auger-Aliassime get his tournament back on track against Nadal on Tuesday afternoon.
The outright market agrees, pricing him up at around the 12.523/2 mark - similar to Ruud who already has that one win in the bank.
Rublev must take chances to shock Medvedev
Today we have two fascinating match-ups. First up, Daniil Medvedev is a 1.384/11 favourite over his countryman, Andrey Rublev.
Medvedev has beating Rublev five times in their six meetings, but Rublev stemmed the flow of losses in their last encounter, a three-set win in Cincinnati when Medvedev was priced up as a heavy 1.282/7 pre match favourite - around 10 ticks below today's market price.
Both players come into this event having won an indoor tournament in October, but Medvedev's far superior return game makes him a justified favourite here - he's won around 5% more return points than Rublev this year indoors, with very similar service data.
On this basis, any success for Rublev would likely come via a tight match where he takes his chances, potentially via tiebreaks.
Djokovic aiming for eight in a row against Tsitsipas
This evening, Novak Djokovic faces Stefanos Tsitsipas in a repeat of the Paris Masters semi-final several weeks ago. That day, Djokovic edged out the Greek in a final set tiebreak, priced up at around 1.251/4 pre-match, and the Serb's price is a little bigger today, currently trading at 1.392/5 on the Exchange.
Djokovic has won his last seven matches against Tsitsipas although dropped six sets in those clashes (two were five-setters in Slams), suggesting that he finds a way to win against this opponent in critical situations.
If we look at the five meetings from 2021 onwards, Tsitsipas' main problem has come on return. He won a mere 28% of return points on the Djokovic serve and just 22% on Djokovic's first serve - allowing the Serb to win cheap points on his serve and put pressure on Tsitsipas's serve with his world-class return game without many worries about his own serve.
So, we know what Tsitsipas will have to do to challenge Djokovic today. The increased market line on Djokovic actually looks fairly generous as a solid pre-match favourite.
My problem with it, is that any handicap line looks a little tricky to recommend given Tsitsipas' history of keeping these match-ups relatively tight. It's not a spot I hugely like, but Djokovic 2-1 at 4.67/2 on the Betfair Exchange could be worth some interest.