- Auger-Aliassime in hot form ahead of this event
- Ruud struggling in recent weeks
- Nadal fitness the debate ahead of Fritz clash
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It's the group of underdogs who get us underway at the ATP Finals today, with action from the Green Group. Anyone interested in an overview of player data for the event can refer to the outright preview, which also discusses the rationale as to why the market leaders are in the Red Group.
Auger-Aliassime with stunning recent results
Today in the earlier match, Felix Auger-Aliassime, the favourite to win the group, faces Casper Ruud, and it's Auger-Aliassime who is the heavy 1.422/5 favourite to start his tournament with a victory.
This is shorter than the 1.68/13 which he was against Ruud in August on hard court in Montreal (Ruud won 6-1 6-2) but also seems fair enough given that since that heavy loss against Ruud, he won three back-to-back-to-back indoor events and is 16-1 in his last 17 matches.
This run of results has, unsurprisingly, produced magnificent surface data for the Canadian which makes it a different match-up in theory to that meeting in Canada.
Ruud coming into the event with struggles
That notion is exacerbated further by Ruud's lack of match practice indoors, losing in his opener in Basel to Stan Wawrinka and then a solitary win in Paris subsequently, over the veteran Richard Gasquet.
In fact, Ruud is 1-4 in his last five matches, with all losses coming as solid favourite, so the Norwegian is taking a rather contrasting run of form into the match compared to Auger-Aliassime, making the market faith on Auger-Aliassime rather justified in my view.
Fritz very capable of defeating Nadal
The market is less strong on the favourite in tonight's second group match, where Rafa Nadal looks an uneasy 1.715/7 favourite to get the job done over Taylor Fritz in a repeat of the Indian Wells Masters final in March, which Fritz won in straight sets, and the Wimbledon quarter-final in July, which Nadal nicked in a final set tiebreak.
Those two results in isolation show why Fritz shouldn't be under-rated for this meeting, and Nadal's lack of match activity further compounds that discussion. Nadal has played just once since his fourth round exit at the US Open at the start of September, and he succumbed to a 6-1 final set loss against Tommy Paul in that match in Paris several weeks ago.
For all of Nadal's legendary fighting spirit, there are those fitness concerns. Since his withdrawal from Wimbledon, Nadal has played six matches and his three wings were against opponents ranked outside the top 60.
Fritz will be a big upgrade on that standard, and while it's difficult to make a stats play here, if I was forced to side with one player at market prices it would definitely be the American as underdog here. We should know a lot more about Nadal's level after this match.