ATP Paris Final Tips: Medvedev slight favourite for Djokovic clash

Russian Tennis Player Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is favourite for today's final...

We've reached the final of the Paris Masters today and it's the two pre-tournament favourites competing for the title. Returning to give his thoughts on the match is Dan Weston...

"I'm sure that quite a few people will have looked at today's prices and thought Djokovic looks big here, but I agree with the market for this and think this match is accurately priced."

Medvedev win sets up potential win double for us

Daniil Medvedev eased past Alexander Zverev for the loss of just four games to give us a Saturday winner, and our outright on the Russian is also still in play as he meets Novak Djokovic in today's final.

I made the point before the event started that Medvedev looked very big at over double the price of Djokovic pre-tournament, and following Djokovic's shaky final set tiebreak victory over Hubert Hurkacz yesterday, it's Medvedev who is actually favourite to lift the title over the world number one at a current 1.9010/11 market line, with Djokovic trading at 2.1011/10. Whatever happens today, I think it's fair to say that we got the pre-tournament value here.

Competitive final in prospect

Medvedev in fact has won four of their last six meetings, although it's the first time he's been a pre-match favourite against the world number one, and in their head-to-head clashes in the last three years, there's been basically nothing between them in terms of service and return points won percentages. Essentially, this should be very well set up for a fantastic, competitive final.

While Djokovic has a better win percentage on hard courts (outdoor and indoor) this year, it's actually Medvedev who has the better underlying data.

Medvedev has won around 1% more service points in those matches, and 2% more return points, and has a higher game win and set win percentage.

Medvedev favourite with market prices accurate

Add to that Djokovic's struggles this week - he's only won in straight sets once, and could easily have been eliminated by Hurkacz yesterday - and his lack of activity since the US Open, it's difficult to disagree with the market line. I'm sure that quite a few people will have looked at today's prices and thought Djokovic looks big here, but I agree with the market for this and think this match is accurately priced. Medvedev looks to have the edge here.

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Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

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