ATP Paris Outright Tips: Conditions likely to benefit second favourite Medvedev

Russian Tennis Player Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is over double the price of Novak Djokovic...

The Paris Masters is the final Masters 1000 event of the regular season, and with Novak Djokovic returning to action, Dan Weston previews the week ahead...

"Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion, having beaten Alexander Zverev in three sets last year, and the Russian should go well again here."

Race to Turin a fascinating subplot in Paris

While the Paris Masters isn't the final ATP main tour event of the season - there is a random 250 in Stockholm next week - it is the final major event before the ATP Finals in Turin, and by definition will also be the last event many players participate in, in 2021.

Paris always has such a fascinating dynamic as well, with players still fighting to qualify for the ATP Finals. Ranks 1-6 in the Race to Turin have already done so, but there are as many as six other players - including Brit, Cameron Norrie - fighting for the remaining two spots. Casper Ruud and Jannik Sinner have marginal advantages over the field in seventh and eighth spot, respectively, but will need a strong showing again in order to ensure qualification.

Medvedev should enjoy the quicker conditions

Conditions in the French capital are likely to be a little quicker than the average hard court. Service points won, service hold percentage and aces per game counts are all higher than the indoor hard mean figures, so there could well be some benefit for big-servers in the conditions. The likes of Reilly Opelka might end up being a pretty tough opponent for seeded players in the coming week.

Daniil Medvedev is the defending champion, having beaten Alexander Zverev in three sets last year, and the Russian should go well again here. He generally performs very well in quicker conditions and is second in the outrights, at 5.609/2, behind 2019 winner Novak Djokovic 2.6613/8. The world number one makes his return to action for the first time since he lost to Medvedev in the US Open final at the start of September, but anyone considering backing the Serb at these prices may want to think about whether he's using this event more as preparation for the ATP Finals, and how rusty he might be after almost two months away from competitive action.

Indoor data supports Medvedev over Djokovic

Medvedev has a quality record indoors this year - a combined service/return points won percentage of over 110%, which makes him elite - and I'm struggling to see why he's double the price of a rusty, and not previously at top form, Djokovic.

While I like Medvedev at prices, it's worth noting that the tournament has had some very random winners, including Jack Sock and Karen Khachanov, plus runners-up such as Jerzy Janowicz. Player motivation in this end of season event could be potentially questionable, but for me, Medvedev looks the pick of the field and I'm shocked he's double the price of the tournament favourite, Djokovic, here, considering the Russian's preference for quick conditions.


Follow Dan on Twitter @TennisRatings

Get a Free £10 Bet - Every Day!

We are now offering no Cash Out suspensions for match odds markets on the Sportsbook for all ATP and WTA matches. Excludes medical timeouts, T&Cs apply.

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles

Read past articles