ATP Gijon & Florence Tips: Berrettini & Rublev the favourites

Both venues hosting new events on the ATP Tour

Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz were the winners of last week's events, with Djokovic now picking up back to back titles indoors - ominous signs ahead of Paris and the ATP Finals over the next few weeks.

Both players have taken the week off following those exertions, and we are in rather uncharted territory with both events which are new on the ATP calendar. We can't ascertain anything in terms of court speed for each venue, although we can of course make the general assertion that indoor hard tends to play quicker than indoors, and we should see a fairly high-variance week with few break points, tiebreaks and potentially dominated by strong servers.

Rublev favourite over strange field in Gijon

However, in Gijon, the field looks more suited to a clay-court tournament, with very few big-servers in the 28 man draw. Andrey Rublev, Francesco Cerundolo, Roberto Bautista-Agut and Pablo Carreno-Busta are the four seeds with byes, while in my view, Tommy Paul, Andy Murray and Sebastian Korda look like dangerous unseeded lurkers in the draw.

Finding a player able to run through the top half of the draw looks a decent plan with 3.953/1 tournament favourite Rublev and clay-courter Cerundolo the seeds, and a half littered with players better away from indoors. Rublev should be the solid favourite to get through to the latter stages, although hasn't played his best for quite some time.

Paul, priced at 11.010/1, has an excellent record indoors (running at 105% combined service/return points won over the last 12 months) and has a gift draw - it would be a lot to expect 2022 US Open boys title winner Martin Landaluce to cause a big shock against him in round one.

Quarter three looks tricky for both Murray and Korda, with the capable Bautista-Agut the seed with the bye, and I'm sure both would have been much happier in Q4 - again featuring a few players less comfortable indoors.

Berrettini and Auger-Aliassime lead the way in Italy

Moving over to Florence, there's quality among the seeds with both Maxime Cressy and tournament favourite Matteo Berrettini 3.412/5 very tough prospects to break serve against indoors, while Felix Auger-Aliassime is the top seed and second favourite at 4.77/2, and also has impressive indoor numbers over the last 12 months (106% combined).

Auger-Aliassime's biggest threat in Q1 should, in theory, come from the talented eighth seed, Brandon Nakashima, who recently picked up his first main tour title in San Diego, albeit without facing a single opponent ranked inside the top 50.

Another young American with big talent is Jenson Brooksby, who is in Q2 with the seed Lorenzo Musetti. I'd be surprised if a player who isn't Auger-Aliassime, Nakashima or Brooksby didn't come through the top half of the draw.

Cressy should get through Q3, with limited opposition in his bracket, while home player Berrettini should await in the semi-finals from Q4, in what would be a real big-serving clash and a match well worth looking for value in the first set tiebreak market.